Port stocks increase methanol recovery limited

The Zhengzhou Methanol ME1405 contract closed higher on the 4th, reaching a high of 2,700 yuan per ton and a low of 2,668 yuan per ton, finally closing at 2,694 yuan per ton. This marked a 0.37% increase from the previous trading day, with open interest decreasing by 1,644 contracts and a total volume of 9,208 contracts.

In terms of news:

1. On April 2nd, the Huizhou Zhongchuang 20,000-ton-per-year MTBE plant resumed normal operations. Daily output reached about 100 tons, with product purity at 98% and impurity content below 80 PPM. The price was reported at 8,500 yuan per ton, with no shipping discounts available.

2. On April 2nd, the latest offer for Shanxi Lanchuangkechuang was executed at 2,450 yuan per ton. The combined output of the three plants, totaling 120,000 tons annually, remained stable and operating smoothly, with daily production around 150 tons.

Regarding spot market activity: Taicang Port in Jiangsu reported import supply quotes between 2,840-2,860 yuan per ton. Recently, the cost of imported methanol has declined. Domestic coal-based supply prices are now around 2,830-2,870 yuan per ton, with Jiangyin offering domestic goods at 2,880 yuan per ton. In Nantong, the latest offer stood at 2,860 yuan per ton. While the morning market showed some strength, negotiations were weak, and trading volumes remained light.

Market analysis: From the perspective of domestic production, imports, and inventory levels, the overall methanol supply continues to exceed demand, leading to further accumulation of inventories. Meanwhile, downstream demand for acetic acid, methyl ether, and MTBE remains below expectations, keeping overall operating rates low. As a result, the methanol market remains bearish. Technically, the ME1405 contract saw a slight rebound but faced resistance near the 2,700 yuan level. In short-term trading, traders are closely watching the 2,700 mark as a key support level, with many using it as a stop-loss point for short positions.

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