Abstract Core Tip: In the short-term, the support strength of spot copper 50,000 appears to be solid, there is still room to continue to rise, pay attention to the pressure of the copper range of 7600-7800 US dollars, the support position moved up to 7200-7300 US dollars. Lun copper main operating range 7300-760...
Copper prices have been rising steadily in recent days. The data collected and analyzed by China's superhard materials network are as follows: Core Tip: In the short-term, the support strength of spot copper 50,000 appears to be solid, there is still room to continue to rise, pay attention to the pressure of the copper range of 7600-7800 US dollars, the support position moved up to 7200-7300 US dollars. The main operating range of copper is 7300-7600 US dollars; copper is 5.23-55,000. Spot copper is 5.25-5.5 million, and scrap copper is 4.85-5.05 million.
First, the electrolytic copper market
Since the other jumped into the high today, it has been running above 53,000 this week. The spot copper is also closely following its trend, and the price is relatively optimistic. The specific data of the Fubao Copper Research Group this week are as follows:
Looking at the situation reflected by the East China stock market in the week, there was almost no change in the spot copper premium in the first few days of this week. However, due to the increase in copper in the next two days, the delivery will come again, and the copper premium will decline. Copper prices have been rising slightly, and holders have different mentalities, but relatively speaking, the market is generally sentimental, but the receiver is still a middleman. The downstream sentiment still exists, only rigid purchases, and the transaction has not been compared before. Big change. However, the South China market is slightly strange this week. The good copper premium has been maintained at 200 yuan/ton or more. The market has very little copper. According to a few traders, it is expected that large merchants will operate secretly. Another obvious feature of this week is that the sales of Pingshui copper and wet copper in the East China and South China markets have increased significantly.
This week, the Shanghai-London ratio has fluctuated and the import losses have continued to widen. From the two sets of data, copper imports are expected to be affected. Recently, the data released by the customs showed that China's imports of copper, copper alloys and semi-finished products reached 295,799 tons in April, down 21.2% year-on-year and 7.4% month-on-month. It also confirmed the impact of the Shanghai-London ratio on imported copper in the previous month. . However, copper prices fell sharply last month, and market sentiment also affected copper imports.
Lun copper spot has changed since the year after the high discounted water market, at present, the discount has dropped below 25 US dollars / ton, European copper consumption has also weakly improved but little impact, we expect the decline in the premium may be due to LME inventory flow Sexual creation; Yangshan copper premium also began to appear a callback. Recently, copper prices have risen and fallen, and the market has a lot of wait-and-see attitudes. Foreign copper prices are slightly stronger. It is expected that this sentiment will continue next week, and the Shanghai-London ratio is still likely to decline slightly.
Second, the recycled copper market
Electrolytic copper and bright lines
The scrap copper price rose slightly this week and is still in the rebound channel, but the rebound momentum has weakened. Foshan 1# bright copper wire rose from the average price of 47,650 last Friday to 49,350, an increase of 1,600 yuan / ton. As the price of copper rebounded, the price difference between scrap copper and electrolytic copper widened and gradually returned to a reasonable range. However, the price advantage of scrap copper is still not obvious. Many small customers report that they use electrolytic copper and scrap copper.
This week, the scrap copper market was relatively calm after the surge, and there was no heavy news on the macro side. The scrap copper continued to rise. As the price of scrap copper rose sharply on Monday, last week's copper price rose, the actual increase in scrap copper this week is relatively limited. From this week's point of view, the resistance of scrap copper prices is still relatively large; first, the international copper price increase momentum is not sufficient, and second, domestic scrap copper manufacturers are more cautious about purchasing. At present, high-quality goods such as bright copper wire are still very popular in the market, but relatively poor sources such as yellow copper are generally unpopular. On the whole, the scrap copper transaction has partially recovered, but the loss customers have a lower willingness to ship, and they are willing to sell only after receiving low-cost sources. In addition, the import of scrap copper in South China is still very difficult, and the import price advantage is no longer. The tight supply of scrap copper in the market continues.
2. Imported scrap copper decreased slightly in April
The General Administration of Customs announced on May 8 that the import of scrap copper was 340,000 tons in April this year, a decrease of 2.86% from the previous month; the cumulative increase in the first four months was 4.6%. Regarding the reasons for the decrease in scrap copper imports, we believe that it mainly comes from the following aspects. First of all, customs inspections are more stringent, and domestic restrictions on imports and inspections continue. Secondly, foreign scrap copper and domestic spreads have narrowed, and even some of them have formed price inversions. As the price advantage decreases, the enthusiasm of domestic waste importers declines. Various factors have led to a tight supply of scrap copper. Most scrap copper suppliers prefer to stop selling scrap copper that is bought at a higher price than to sell at a loss. These factors will all be more favorable to the formation of copper prices.
Third, the downstream market analysis
This week, from the ex-factory price of Zhejiang Jinlong Hpb58-3 brass rod, the price of brass rods increased significantly from last week, and it has stabilized from 36,600 yuan/ton to 37,300 yuan/ton. The overall increase is 700 yuan/ton. The main copper prices also benefited from a rebound in copper prices low, because the price of copper fell swoop last Monday near the red to 53,000, lifting copper prices rose sharply to stimulate the business offer. At the same time, scrap copper raw materials are still tending to be tight, and the price of brass has not fallen back. This is also the reason why the price of brass rods is relatively firm.
Cable companies overall situation is slightly better than copper companies, mainly large power grids and other support orders. For large enterprises that are stable in terms of orders, it is very difficult for SMEs to make profits in the past two months; they have to be restricted by funds (small companies have a tighter capital chain), and the fluctuations in copper prices have also made corporate purchases timid. Cable companies are already over-represented, and some small companies have been under pressure from the industry and depressed copper prices, and it is not uncommon for them to be forced to switch and stop production. But this is not a bad thing for the overall industry, and it is conducive to the long-term development of the industry under the principle of survival of the fittest.
Fourth, futures market analysis and forecast
This week, the price of copper bottomed up, showing a double bottom. Lun copper showed strong support below $6,800. With the combination of macro and fundamentals, it was strong. As shown below:
In terms of inventory, LME copper stocks continued to decline, down nearly 10,000 tons from the highest inventory, and currently fell to 608,700 tons, mostly manifested as the outflow of Asian warehouses, suggesting that the downstream receiving strength is increasing. According to the research data of Fubao Metal Network, the demand for home appliances and cables has improved significantly recently. Although the demand for home appliances has a risk of decline after the peak season, cable demand is expected to be maintained. In April, the operating rate of copper companies was 81%. The operating rate of cable companies is 78%, and the downstream in May is expected to be slightly better than the current level.
From the perspective of the entire copper industry chain, there are still inevitable contradictions between supply and demand. The demand for copper in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and Germany is unlikely to recover significantly. China's power grid, real estate, home appliances and other consumer markets have reached their peak in the short term, and copper demand growth will fall. In the context of high copper prices, copper supply has continued to grow, and oversupply is still a long-term pressure on copper prices.
As the main measure of copper price, the US dollar is still in the rising channel since 2011. In the context of the world's economic recession, the stable recovery of the US economy will continue the strong trend of the US dollar index, which will give copper prices. The rebound brought pressure. We believe that the surge in copper prices is only a correction for the previous sustained decline, and will not be out of the reverse.
In the short-term, the surge in copper prices has made the support of spot copper 50,000 solid. It still has room to continue to rise. Focusing on the pressure of the 7200-7800 US dollar range, the support level has moved up to 7200-7300 US dollars. Copper main operating range of $ 7300-7600; copper 5.23-5.5 million. Spot copper 5.25-5.5 million and scrap: 4.85-5.05 million.
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