Since July 27, the price of glass futures has continued to rise following the spot. As of August 10, the glass futures main contract 1601 rose 2.42% to close at 888 yuan / ton, the highest hit 892 yuan / ton in the day, the cumulative increase has reached 6.47%, becoming a recent bright color of the commodity market.
"Since the beginning of August, the fundamentals of glass have shown a short-term positive pattern. The market has shown a certain peak season atmosphere under the price of glass enterprises, which has supported the rebound of the glass futures market, especially the strong performance in recent months." According to CITIC Futures' analysis, in the market's expected peak season, the short-term glass or the pattern of maintaining a large volatility will remain relatively strong in recent months.
At present, the spot market has experienced seasonal stabilization, and the price of glass in many places has generally increased slightly recently. It is reported that in recent days, Shahe market producers carried out the second round of this month's increase, and thin and thick plates were generally raised by 0.5-1 yuan/weight box. Tianjin Zhongbo, Tianjin Xinyi, Hebei Runan and other enterprises raised 1-2 yuan / weight box. The price in the East China market is basically stable, with frequent rains recently and producers selling flat. The price of Xinyi Market Xinyi and Qibin is raised by 2 yuan/weight box.
As of August 10, China's glass composite index was 815.29 points, up 2.99 points; China's glass price index was 804.77 points, up 3.70 points; China's glass market confidence index was 857.39 points, up 0.18 points. The average price of glass in major cities in China was 1082.55 yuan, up 3.36 yuan / ton. Prices in major cities were mostly flat, with some cities rising. Among them, Guangzhou's biggest increase was 16.00 yuan / ton.
“The current market trend is getting warmer. The price increase and inventory reduction of production enterprises are mainly based on the expected results of the peak season. The price of Huazhong area is oversold and the environmental protection supervision and production limits in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have caused some traders and deep processing enterprises to carry out a certain amount. Replenish stocks for later use.†Zhou Wenhuan of the Founder Mid-term Research Institute pointed out in the research report that the current spot market is in the process of transition from the off-season to the traditional peak season. From a regional perspective, this process of switching between the peak seasons and the north market is significantly earlier than the southern market. The current price increase is driven by the active price hikes of production companies, not driven by the increase in terminal demand. At the same time, the market confidence of traders and deep processing enterprises was significantly weaker than that of the same period of last year, and the shortage of funds caused the original stocks of traders and deep processing enterprises to be at a relatively low level.
CITIC Futures also pointed out that under the positive price of glass enterprises, the domestic glass market showed a certain peak season atmosphere, and the confidence of the downstream market was slightly boosted. On the other hand, the inventory of glass production enterprises continued to decline slowly. Last week, the total inventory decreased by 220,000 heavy containers to 34.98 million heavy containers, which was the first time since March this year to fall back below 35 million heavy boxes. “Although the overall inventory level is still relatively high compared with the same period of last year, the performance of the continuous decline in the chain since July has stabilized the confidence of the market, especially the enthusiasm of the glass companies.â€
Looking forward to the market outlook, Nanhua Futures believes that the downstream demand for glass will be improved by the seasonal increase; therefore, from the perspective of the late market trend, there is still a certain room for price increase in the short term. However, it is worth noting that after the end of the region, real estate construction, glass processing and product transportation will be subject to certain restrictions, so the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term is difficult to improve.
“The demand has stabilized seasonally, and the weak demand pattern in the medium and long-term has not changed. The short-term shocks are stronger than the upward momentum. It is recommended that the shocks be short-term and more focused, or temporarily wait and see.†Hua Hui futures analyst Xu Huimin said.
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