February steel price index trend warning report

First, the market review The beginning of the New Year, the domestic steel prices opened up, only four days after the New Year's Day, the steel prices will be elevated over 100, the market once appeared in the same spot and **, ore and billet rose scene. However, despite the enthusiasm of the market is still high, but with the spring approaching, the off-season effect of the steel market has become more obvious, increasingly reduced transactions can not match the continuing high steel prices, so after a short period of initial high in early January, Weak adjustment and rational repair have become the mainstream of the market.

Second, the supply analysis article 1, domestic construction steel stocks inventory analysis According to the Xi Bin Shinkansen monitoring data show that since December 21 last year, the domestic steel stocks began to enter the Masukura channel, the current national steel inventory is 15.25 million tons, although compared with last year The same period is still not enough, but the monthly rate has increased by about 17%. In terms of sub-categories, currently construction steel is still the main force of Masukura, and its inventory has been increased for 9 consecutive weeks, and the range of increase in Masukura has reached 20%, but it has fallen by 15% year-on-year; wire stocks have increased by 15% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year; Inventories rose by only 10% month-on-month and by 27% year-on-year. Cold-rolled stocks remained the same month-on-month and were stable compared to the same period of last year. They were among the relatively stable stocks with the smallest changes. Plate stocks recorded little change from the previous quarter, down 8.9% year-on-year.

The data shows that due to the difficulties of this year's steel trade and the frequent impact of warehouse credit problems, the market trade in pallets has been cautious, the number of traders' stocks has plummeted, the proportion of stocks has fallen sharply, and hot rolling, high wire and rebar have become destocked. The largest of the three varieties, including hot-rolled and high-line de-stocking efforts throughout the year close to 30%. This year's winter storage situation, the overall scale and intensity is also difficult in previous years, traders in the hands of more limited resources.

It is worth noting that, from the steel mill inventory situation, China Steel Association data show that at the end of January Steel Association member steel stocks was 10,712,500 tons, up 7.17% over the previous period. It can be considered that the substantial increase in the inventory of mid-range steel mills, in addition to some orders have not been issued orders, there are also steel mills themselves optimistic about the market outlook, stocks waiting to go up.

In addition, because billet storage is convenient, corrosion resistance is stronger, and trays are easy to operate, it has become the focus of this year's cargo speculation. At present, the total number of Tangshan billet stocks is close to 1.2 million tons. If the current speed increases, it is estimated that the total inventory will exceed 1.5 million years later. T is not too much suspense to reach the highest point in history. This situation may increase the price pressure on the semi-finished market.

2. Analysis of domestic steel supply situation According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel production reached 717 million tons in 2012, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year. Compared with 8.9% growth in 2011 and 9.26% growth in 2010, the growth rate of 3.1% of production this year has already dropped significantly. Compared with the growth rate of 16%-27% between 2003 and 2007, it is not comparable to the growth rate of production. language. This phenomenon shows that the golden age of the rapid development of the steel industry has ended with the end of heavy industry. The late low-speed growth of steel production and the conversion of steel production from extensive to intensive will become the trend of the times.

It is noteworthy that China's crude steel production in December 2012 was 57.66 million tons, an increase of 7.7% year-on-year; in December, China's average daily production of crude steel was 1.86 million tons, a 2.9% decrease from the previous month in November, a record low for the year. This also shows that the previous soaring ore price significantly restricts the production of steel mills and the formation of profitability.

According to the latest data from the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel for key large and medium-sized enterprises in mid-January was 1.615 million tons, down 3.73% month-on-month. The average daily production of crude steel in mid-January is estimated to be 1.1944 million tons. Declined by 1.53%. As a whole, taking into account the actual supply and demand conditions of the holiday market, steel production and delivery rhythm will appear to slow down.

3. Analysis of domestic steel import and export status According to the latest customs statistics, according to the latest customs statistics, China's steel imports and exports both declined in December 2012, but the import volume of iron ore reached 70.94 million tons, an increase of 5.16 million tons over the previous month. Set a record high.

In December, 4.85 million tons of steel were exported, 280,000 tons less than in November, an increase of 30.38% compared with the same period of last year. From January to December, cumulative exports totaled 55.73 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14%.

In December, China imported 1.04 million tons of steel, which was 20,000 tons less than that in November and 12.61% lower than the same period of last year. From January to December, it imported a total of 13.66 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%.

In the whole year of 2012, the billet basically had no export. In December, 30,000 tons of billets were imported, and imports totaled 360,000 tons from January to December, which was 43.3% lower than the same period of last year.

In December, 70.94 million tons of iron ore was imported, an increase of 5.16 million tons from the previous month, a year-on-year increase of 10.69%. From January to December, imports totaled 743.55 million tons, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year.

In addition, China exported 60,000 tons of coke in December, an increase of 10,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative export volume was 1.02 million tons, a year-on-year drop of 69.1%.

The data show that in December, although the steel exports have fallen month-on-month, they still rose by more than 30% year-on-year. From the feedback of the steel mills, the export orders are also relatively satisfactory in the latter part of the year; in 2012, the cumulative export of steel products in China was 55.7321 million tons. , a year-on-year increase of 14%. The above data shows that with the improvement of the economic situation in the major countries such as the United States, Europe, and Japan, the international steel demand has seen a moderate recovery. It is expected that the steel export volume of China in 2013 is still expected to maintain a certain scale.

4. Expected comprehensive construction steel supply next month, with the approaching Spring Festival, key steel enterprises have reduced the production schedule and delivery volume in the mid-to-late-term, and at the same time, with the tight supply of billet years ago, part of the billet rolling The mills have also entered a state of suspension or semi-cessation, which has reduced the current supply pressure in the market. However, the average daily output of over 1.9 million tons in the middle and middle of January was still at a relatively high level compared with the same period in history, which also reflected that the current steel production power is still relatively abundant. While the market will be fully closed during the holiday season, but the steel plant production will not stop, the above factors will increase the pressure of supply after the year.

III. Demand Situations 1. Trends in the sales volume of Shanghai's construction steel products Assessed by the traditional sales data mix (above), the monitoring data of the Xi'an Shinkansen Steel Spot Trading Platform show that the terminal purchase volume of the Lunar New Year in November (12.13-1.12) is higher than that of the Chinese lunar calendar. In October, it fell 9.93%. Market feedback indicates that since January time, construction site shutdowns have gradually increased, and downstream real steel demand has decreased significantly; near the end of January, many sites have entered a phase of comprehensive shutdown, and traders mostly rely on payment collection and settlement, with the exception of some In spite of the sporadic year-old stocking demand, the demand for real steel has basically stagnated.

2. Analysis of domestic construction investment quotas From the perspective of the city’s investment quotas, data from the Shanghai Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2012, the city’s total investment in fixed assets was 525.438 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% over the previous year. In the three major investment areas, urban infrastructure investment was 103.816 billion yuan, a drop of 9.8%; industrial investment was 129.261 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1%; real estate development investment was 238.136 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7%. The data shows that with the gradual advancement of infrastructure investment, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets in first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Beijing has shown signs of slowdown, and the trend of shifting the country’s infrastructure investment focus to the central and western regions has become more clear.

From the national investment data, China's total fixed asset investment in 2012 was 364.835 billion yuan, an increase of 20.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell 0.1 percentage points from January to November. From the perspective of the industry, infrastructure investment is still the main driving force for the recovery of fixed asset investment. In 2012, the total domestic infrastructure investment amounted to 7,612.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, and the growth rate increased by 0.7 percentage points from January to November. In terms of real estate, the national investment in real estate development in 2012 amounted to 7180.4 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 16.2% over the previous year. The growth rate was 0.5 percentage points lower than that in January-November, and the growth rate was 11.7 percentage points lower than that of 2011. On the whole, although the growth rate of real estate investment has obviously declined compared with the previous year, the situation of stabilizing at the end of the year has already become apparent. With the increase in sales in core cities since the fourth quarter and the dramatic improvement in the status of investment funds, the increase in investment in real estate market development in 2013 will also become a high probability event.

At the same time, taking into account the completion of the change of local governments, the effect of the change in fixed asset investment may reappear after 2013**. Taking into account the above factors, we expect that the demand for steel products in 2013 will be generally better than 2012, followed by Jin Sanyin. Four demand season or worth the wait.

3. Expected construction steel demand next month In summary, from January to February of the calendar year, due to the impact of the Spring Festival, the construction site will be completely shut down and the actual procurement volume in the market will fall to the lowest level in the year. The current market price is still strong, mainly in the peak season demand for gold three silver and four, and from the current fixed assets investment data and policy signals, it can still support this expectation. In addition, we must pay attention to this year's Spring Festival holiday from February 9 to February 15. After the holiday, traders are fully expected to arrive around February 25 around the Lantern Festival, and the demand starts gradually at the time of March. Around the middle of the year, in other words, because the Spring Festival is relatively late this year, the waiting time for the market to switch from season to season is not very long, which also reduces the time cost and financial pressure of traders.

Cost Analysis Chapter 1. Analysis of Raw Material Costs The price trend of raw materials during the month was “strong at the two ends, weak at the middle”. Overall, the other varieties continued to rise, except that the billet was basically flat last month. According to the monitoring data of the Nisshin Shinkansen line, as of January 30, the billet billet price in Tangshan was 3,280 yuan/ton, which was a month-on-month increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price of scrap in Jiangsu was 2,940 yuan/ton, up by 110 yuan month-on-month. / Ton; Shanxi coke price was 1470 yuan / ton, month-on-month rose 50 yuan / ton; Tangshan 66% taste dry iron ore price was 1160 yuan / ton, month up 30 yuan / ton. At the same time, the price of 63.5% Indian ore fines was US$150.25/tonne, up by US$8.25/tonne.

In terms of sub-species, the billet in Tangshan rose sharply in early January. On January 8, the price once reached 3,370 yuan/ton, which was the highest level since late July last year. The price of steel billet also fell due to the fall in finished product prices. Later, it rose slightly again. The price at the end of the month rose slightly by RMB 10/t from the end of last month. At present, the tax-inclusive production cost of ordinary carbon billet in Tangshan area is around 3,500 yuan/ton. According to the current market price of billet, billet enterprises have lost more than 200 yuan/ton. At present, the steel billet take-out volume of some steel mills is very limited, and individual manufacturers have recently started maintenance. There are not many spot billets on the market. The traders are mostly wait-and-see, and the operation is more cautious. Some merchants who are optimistic about the post-holiday market begin to make proper supplements. In early January, coke continued to rise at a rate of RMB 50 per ton, and prices remained basically stable in the middle and late periods. Shanxi's coke prices rose slightly, and coke prices were low. This time, the price increase was mainly supported by pre-holiday steel mills. Now, the inventory of coke in steel mills is maintained at 15-20 days, and it is very difficult for the market price in the latter period to continue to rise. Domestic scrap prices continued to rise in January, reaching a rate of RMB 110/t. According to statistics, in December 2012, China's iron-steel ratio was 88.27%, which hit a new high in recent years, indicating that the amount of scrap used by large and medium-sized steel mills is still limited. At the same time, as the Spring Festival approaches, many mid-frequency furnace steel mills will gradually stop production, and the market demand for scrap steel will further weaken.

From the iron ore market, domestic iron ore prices rose first and then fell in January, which was an overall increase of RMB 30/t from the end of last month. Near the Spring Festival, the safety of mines in the northern regions is gradually shut down, and the resources available for the whole place have been reduced. The steel mills are currently in stock until mid-February, and there will be a small amount of restocking in the later period. Imported iron ore prices rose sharply in early January, continued to decline in mid-term, and rose again in the later. 63.5% of Indian ore mines' external quotation increased by US$8.25/ton from the end of last month, and 62% of Platts’ iron ore index rose US$3.75/ton. Recently some of the ports in northern ports have gradually arrived at Hong Kong. The port of Tianjin has increased by 5 days from last week to nearly 20 days. Qingdao Port and Rizhao Port also have 3-4 days of pressure. Although steel mills bought a certain amount of iron ore before the Spring Festival, they did not stimulate the market to rise further. With the completion of the refinishment by the steel mills, the risk of the imported ore prices continues to accumulate, and the pressure between 150-155 is under great pressure.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell first and then fell in January. It rose continuously for the first 13 trading days and continued to fall for the next 5 trading days. As of January 28, the BDI index closed at 792 points, which is higher than 12 points. The end rose 93 points, or 13.3%. Affected by Peta, a tropical cyclone, the major iron ore ports of Australia, Port Hedland, Lambert Point, and Dampier were all closed in late January. Nearly 50% of global iron ore trade was suspended. Demand is affected. At present, the international shipping market as a whole shows a weak trend. The charter turnover is low and the excess capacity is still continuing. .

2. Analysis of ex-factory prices of construction steels in major regions Baosteel continuously issued the sheet metal price policy in February and March this month. The ex-factory prices in February are raised by RMB 80-160/ton, and the ex-factory prices in March are raised by RMB 100-220/ton. Baosteel has been raising the factory price for four consecutive months. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the domestic market has continued to perform as a strong and weak sector, and the panel manufacturers' contract group has improved significantly. Construction steel manufacturers continued to increase their prices in the first half of this month. With the adjustment of market prices in the middle and later quarters, the prices of steel mills were generally stable, and prices of some manufacturers decreased slightly. Among them, Shagang’s factory prices for wire rods and rebars rose by RMB 150/t in the first half of January and remained stable at the end of the year; Hebei Iron & Steel’s settlement price in January was reduced by RMB 40-110/t. The current price of domestic construction steel has been significantly lower than that of sheet steel, and the release of production capacity of construction steel companies will be restrained. According to the comparison between the current market price and the cost of steel mills, some steel mills have once again turned into losses, and the cost support in the later period will be strengthened. With the increased willingness of winter merchants in some regions at the end of the year, the contract organization of steel mills has improved. The pressure on the price reduction of steel mills in February has not been significant.

3. It is expected that the construction steel cost will increase next month. After the previous continuous restocking, domestic iron ore and coke inventory of domestic steel mills have risen, basically meeting the production needs during the Spring Festival. At the same time, small steel mills in some regions will restrict production and production suspension during the Spring Festival, and raw material market demand will also be affected. It is expected that the domestic iron ore, coke, and other raw material prices will tend to be slightly consolidating in February. At present, the cost pressures of steel companies are generally large. Under the situation that contract organizations have improved at the end of the year, the prices of steel mills in the latter stages are expected to increase slightly. Taken together, the cost forecast for the next month will be mainly based on steady increase.

(I) Major macroeconomic data for January (1) China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December 2012 issued by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey was 50.6%, unchanged from the previous month. From the 11 sub-indexes, the production index, new export order index, raw material inventory index, and supplier delivery time index decreased, with a smaller decrease of more than 1 percentage point; the rest of the index remained unchanged or increased. Among them, the purchase price index was 53.3%, a significant increase from the previous month, an increase of 3.2 percentage points; the remaining increase in the index has a smaller increase, both within 1 percentage point.

(2) The steel industry PMI index issued by the China Iron and Welfare Steel Logistics Professional Committee returned to the expansion zone in December, a rebound of 6.3 percentage points from the previous month to 55.5%, a record high of nearly 7 months. In particular, the new order index, which reflects changes in the demand side, has rebounded sharply by 13.5 percentage points to 60%, a record high of nearly 22 months.

(3) According to central bank statistics, at the end of 2012, the balance of broad money (M2) was 97.42 trillion yuan, up 13.8% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point lower than the end of November and 0.2 percentage point higher than the end of the previous year; the narrow money (M1) balance was 308,700. Billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, was 1.0 percentage point higher than the end of November and 1.4 percentage points lower than the end of the previous year. In 2012, the scale of social activism was 15.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.93 trillion yuan over the previous year. Among them, ***** increased by 8.20 trillion yuan, an increase of 732 billion yuan year-on-year. In December, the scale of social affairs was 1.63 trillion yuan, which was 351.2 billion yuan more than the same period of last year. Among them, ***** increased 454.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.3 billion yuan.

(4) According to customs statistics, in 2012, the total value of China’s foreign trade imports and exports was 3,866.76 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 6.2% over the previous year. Among them, exports were 2,048,930 million U.S. dollars, up 7.9%; imports were 1,817.83 billion U.S. dollars, up 4.3%; trade surpluses were 231.1 billion U.S. dollars, up 48.1%. In December, both China's import and export scales hit record highs. The total value of imports and exports for the month was 366.84 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 10.2%. Among them, exports accounted for 199.23 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 14.1%; imports accounted for 167.61 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 6%; trade surplus was 31.62 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 91.8%.

(5) The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics today shows that, for the preliminary calculation, the GDP for the year as a whole in 2012 was 51,932.2 billion yuan, which was calculated at a comparable price and increased by 7.8% over the previous year. From a quarterly perspective, the first quarter increased by 8.1% year-on-year, 7.6% in the second quarter, 7.4% in the third quarter, and 7.9% in the fourth quarter. In terms of sub-sectors, the value added of the primary industry was 5.2377 trillion yuan, up 4.5% from the previous year; the value added of the secondary industry was 235319 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1%; the tertiary industry's added value was 2316.2 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1%. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, GDP rose by 2.0% in the fourth quarter.

(6) On January 14, the data released by the National Energy Administration showed that in 2012, the entire society used 485.1 million kWh of electricity, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year. This is the second-lowest growth rate of electricity consumption in society since 2002, which is only slightly higher than the 5.23% minimum annual growth rate during the 2008 financial crisis. Compared with 2011, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society fell by 6.2% in 2012. The primary industry was 101.3 billion kWh, the secondary industry was 3666.9 billion kWh, the tertiary industry was 569 billion kWh, and the urban and rural residents live 621.9 billion kWh.

(7) HSBC Bank (HSBC) released data on Thursday (January 24) that China's HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.9 in January, the highest in 24 months, and it was the first consecutive year. Five months later, the final value of the previous month was 51.5.

(8) The website of the Ministry of Railways released on the 21st the completion of major national railway indicators in 2012. The data shows that the railway fixed asset investment completed 630.98 billion yuan in 2012, an increase of 7% year-on-year. The capital construction investment was 518.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%.

(9) From January to December, the national public finance revenue was 11,711,000 million yuan, an increase of 1,333.5 billion yuan over the previous year, an increase of 12.8%. From January to December, the country’s public expenditure totaled 1,257.1 billion yuan, an increase of 1,646.4 billion yuan over the previous year, an increase of 15.1%.

(10) Investment in fixed assets from January to December 2012 was 3.6483 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%. The growth rate was 3.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous year, 0.1 percentage point lower than that in the first 11 months; January-December real estate development investment 71804 Billion yuan, an increase of 16.2% year-on-year, the growth rate fell 11.9 percentage points from the previous year, and fell 0.5 percentage points from January to November.

(11) Compared with the previous month, the sales prices of residential houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities in December 2012 were 8 cities with a decrease in the prices of new commercial housing, 8 cities with flat cities, and 54 cities with rising prices. In the cities where prices rose month-on-month, neither rose more than 1.2%.

(12) The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission and other agencies jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion of Mergers and Acquisitions in Key Industries," and the "Opinions" clarified the automobile, steel, cement, shipbuilding, electrolytic aluminum, rare earth, electronic information, and pharmaceuticals. The goals and tasks of the merger and restructuring of the nine major industrial enterprises are among the leading agricultural industrialization enterprises. Among them, the "Opinions" make it clear that by 2015, the industry concentration of the top 10 iron and steel enterprise groups will reach about 60%, forming 3-5 enterprise groups with core competitiveness and strong international influence, 6-7 companies will have more Strong regional market competitiveness of enterprise groups.

(II) Expectation of macroeconomic trends in February 2013 1. The general election effect will stimulate the rapid growth of investment, driving domestic steel market demand In 2012, China's GDP grew by 7.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate hit a new low in 13 years. However, the fourth quarter GDP growth rate of 7.9% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage point rebound from the previous quarter, ending the previous seven consecutive quarters of the fall in growth, China's economy has stabilized and pick up the situation is clear. In 2012, the national fixed asset investment increased nominally by 20.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate falling by 0.1 percentage point from January to November and 3.4 percentage points from 2011. The national real estate development investment increased by 16.2% year-on-year, which is a slowdown from January to November. 0.5 percentage points, down 11.9 percentage points from 2011. Infrastructure investment is still the main driving force for the recovery of fixed asset investment. In 2012, the total domestic infrastructure investment amounted to 7,612.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, and the growth rate increased by 0.7 percentage point from January to November. Among them, railway investment in fixed assets completed 630.98 billion yuan in 2012, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and the growth rate was 3.9 percentage points higher than that in January-November. Minister of Railways Sheng Guangzu said at the National Railway Work Conference that this year's railway investment will reach 650 billion yuan, of which infrastructure investment will be 520 billion yuan. In the remaining three years of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, it will complete the investment of 1.33 trillion yuan. The Forecasting Scientific Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences recently announced that the 2013 China Economic Forecasting Report predicts that China's economy will recover moderately in 2013, with its GDP growth rate at around 8.4%, which is an increase of approximately 0.6 percentage point from 2012.

Recently, with the convening of local governments, the local investment plans for 2013 have also been intensively released. To cope with the performance evaluation cycle, local governments have announced large-scale investment plans in the name of steady growth and urbanization. According to incomplete statistics, there are 4 provinces with investment targets of 30% and above this year, including Xinjiang, Gansu, Guizhou, and Heilongjiang. The provinces whose targets are set at 20% include Fujian, Liaoning, Hainan, and Guangxi, while those in developed regions are set at 18% in Jiangsu, 15% in Guangdong, and 9% in Beijing. Shanghai and Zhejiang have not announced quantitative targets. With local governments seeking investment to support "steady growth", transportation infrastructure and other major projects are still darling. For example, Zhu Xiaodan, governor of Guangdong Province, indicated that 400 billion yuan will be allocated this year for 280 key construction projects. In 2013, Wuhan City will invest more than 130 billion yuan in urban infrastructure construction. This figure has doubled from 64.7 billion yuan in 2012. The change effect will stimulate local investment to accelerate growth, and will keep the demand for domestic construction steel at a high level.

2. The central bank launched the SLO, and the liquidity of the market will be expected to be supported. In January, it continued to regulate market liquidity through reverse repurchase operations. However, the reverse repurchase efforts have weakened. This month, the central bank’s open market achieved net withdrawal for four consecutive weeks. The amount returned was 359 billion yuan. However, due to the decline in deposits in January caused the withdrawal of reserves and the increase in the amount of ** accounts, market funds in January remained generally more relaxed, the market funds interest rates continue to decline. According to the data monitored by the Shinkansen Shinkansen, on January 28, the monthly discount rate for the Shanghai Bureau of Foreign Exchange was 4.38‰, a decrease of 14.79% from the end of 2012, which was the lowest since September 2012. For the whole year of 2012, the size of China’s social gamut reached 15.76 trillion yuan, which was 2.93 trillion yuan more than the previous year. Among them, ***** increased 8.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 732 billion yuan year-on-year. In December, ***** increased 454.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.3 billion yuan, this figure hit a new low since January 2010; December social scale was 1.63 trillion yuan, compared with the same period last year 351.2 billion more. On the whole, despite the seasonal decline in the size of new credits in December, the scale of social data in the same month still shows a strong financial support for the real economy.

In September 2012, the world’s major central banks began intensive operations and implemented quantitative easing monetary policies to form an unprecedented large-scale loosening wave. China’s central bank issued an announcement in a recent announcement that the central bank currently uses the SLO tool as a necessary supplement to the conventional operations of the open market, and mainly uses short-term repurchases within a seven-day period. The camera is used when there is a temporary fluctuation in the liquidity of the banking system. The central bank's open market use of the SLO tool will provide short-term liquidity protection for the 12 participating institutions, which in turn will support the liquidity of the entire market. According to another report, in the 20 days before January, the number of new banks in China’s top four banks reached 340 billion yuan, and the number of newly added financial institutions in January is likely to exceed 1 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase. It is expected that the funds in the domestic market will remain relatively loose in February.

VI. International Market According to the data of the comprehensive treatment of the Xi Ben Shinkansen (as shown in the above table), the overall international steel price volatility rose this month. The European and American markets performed slightly stronger than the Asian market. The specific data is as follows:

Rebar prices rose slightly: European and American markets: In January and December, the prices of US steel mills increased by US$5/ton, and the import prices were flat. During the same period, the prices of EU steel mills increased by US$9/ton, import prices rose by US$9/ton, and German market prices increased by US$10/ton.

In the Asian market: In the Chinese market, domestic steel prices – the Nishitsushinkansen Steel Index rose from US$560/ton on December 31 to US$585/ton on January 29, and the price rose by US$25/ton on a single month; South Korea market The quotation rose by US$6/tonne; the Japanese market price fell by US$29/tonne and the export price was flat. In addition, the Middle East’s import prices were flat, Turkey’s exports rose by US$15/ton, and the CIS countries’ export prices increased by US$10/ton.

Billet price fluctuations: In January and December, Turkey's export offer (FOB price) increased by US$15/ton, while the CIS export black poster (FOB price) rose by US$25/ton. The price of imports in the Middle East market was flat. The price of Southeast Asian imports (CFR) increased by US$30/ton.

According to the statistics of the World Steel Association, the world's crude steel production in 2012 was 1.548 billion tons, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, a record high for three consecutive years. However, affected by the sluggish demand in Europe and South America, except for the Lehman crisis that caused production to fall below the previous year in 2008 and 2009, the growth rate was the lowest level since 2001. The rapidly growing demand for steel, centered on China, has begun to slow. China's crude steel production is 717 million tons, accounting for 46% of the world's total production. However, the growth rate was only 3.1%, which was below 5% for the first time in four years. Japan's crude steel output decreased by 0.3%, still ranking second. The third steel-producing country is the United States, with a production volume of 88.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, which has increased for three consecutive years. India is the fourth producer of steel, with a production of 76.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. Among the top 10 countries in terms of output, Germany and Ukraine in Europe have experienced a decline. In emerging economies, Turkey and Brazil, which is under pressure to import crude steel, are also lower than in the previous year.

In summary, the major economies in the world have adopted a new round of quantitative easing policies. The economies of the United States and Europe have gradually recovered and steel prices have been rising for three consecutive months. In the case of steel mills increasing their prices in succession and raw material costs are high, it is expected that the international steel market will continue to fluctuate in general in February.

VII. Comprehensive Perspective This article comprehensively summarizes the contents of the February analysis report. The basic operating conditions for the price of construction steel in Shanghai in February are as follows:

First, the demand level. Judging from this year's situation, in the first half of February, the market is in a completely closed state. From February 16 to February 25, traders will enter the market on a continuous basis, and the time point for construction starts will generally be after the first month of the fifteenth. , which is the beginning of March. In other words, because the Spring Festival is relatively late this year, the waiting time for the market to switch from season to season is not very long, which also relieves the pressure of the slump after years.

Second, the supply level. From the production data in the first half of January, due to long vacation factors and normal maintenance considerations, key steel companies have actively reduced their production schedules and shipments. However, it is worth noting that the average daily output of over 1.9 million tons in the middle and middle of January was still at a high level in the same period of history; in addition, steel stocks of the steel association member companies soared by 7% in mid-January, which can also be understood as steel. Since the plant is optimistic about the market outlook, it has the intention of increasing its own inventory by reducing market shipments.

Third, the cost factor. After the previous period of continuous restocking, domestic iron ore, coke and other stocks of domestic steel mills have risen to meet the production needs during the Spring Festival. At the same time, small steel mills in some regions will restrict production and production suspension during the Spring Festival, and raw material market demand will also be affected. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic iron ore, coke and other raw material prices will generally show a slight consolidation trend in February. However, after March, the steel mills may have a new round of restocking demand release, which will still have a decisive effect on the price of raw materials and the ex-factory price of steel mills.

Fourth, capital and policy factors. The current economic bottoming out and urbanization have become the consensus of the market, and the investment incentives of local governments are still sufficient under the effect of the change of commission. This is also the reason why the market is generally optimistic about spring demand. In addition, since September last year, the world's major central banks have been pursuing quantitative easing monetary policy to form an unprecedented large-scale loosening tide, and the inflationary environment will also help boost commodity prices.

Fifth, the market mentality. Due to the tight funding of steel trade and part of the previous stage, this year's traders' winter storage efforts have generally been less than in previous years, and most traders have little stock pressure. In addition, the two months of January and January's partial market conditions caused the traders to have a comprehensive holding cost of more than RMB 3,650/ton, while the current second-tier quality rebars on the market are less than RMB 3,800/ton, regardless of price. In recent years, comparisons with raw materials and prices have been at a low level. In other words, there is no obvious bubble space for the current spot price, so even if there is partial downward pressure on the price of the ** disk after the year, its space will be limited.

In February, there are two weeks in the closed state, and in the limited working days after the year, both buyers and sellers will enter the market gradually, and the real market transactions are limited. However, based on factors such as short switching time in this year's peak season, relatively low spot prices, and better outlook for future market demand, the market may still be dominated by strong sideways or heuristics after the end of the year. The downside space and pressure are not obvious. . Based on this, it is expected that Shanghai's high-quality rebars on behalf of the specifications in February will be firm at 3,900-4050 yuan/ton.