Energy structure: tendency to low carbon fuel

In the context of the international oil price plunging, in February this year, BP followed the tradition of the past and released the 2015 edition of BP2035 World Energy Outlook (hereinafter referred to as "Outlook"). On April 29th, BP's chief economist Dai Sipan was invited to introduce the main contents of "Outlook" in the group company.

The report was prepared by BP economic experts and based on the possible economic and population growth trends and government policy and technology updates, starting with global energy trends, respectively, the most likely development trajectory for liquid fuels, natural gas, coal and non-fossil fuels. The development forecast for the next 20 years.

“After maintaining the high price of false and stable for three years, the drop in oil prices in recent months has sounded the alarm for us, and the shape of the energy market is constantly changing.” In the official press release issued by BP Group, Dai Sipan said: Importantly, we need to identify short-term trends in supply and demand that will shape the energy sector over the next 20 years through short-term fluctuations and help identify strategic options that can be made in the face of this industry and policy makers. "This edition has sorted out the key predictions in "Outlook" to readers.

BP expects that by 2035, although the overall share of fossil fuels will fall from 86% in 2013 to 81%, it is clear that most of the global energy demand will continue to rely on fossil fuels. However, the energy mix will tilt toward lower-carbon fuels: in the next 20 years, about one-third of new energy demand will be met by natural gas, one-third by oil and coal, and one-third by non-fossil fuels.

In terms of liquid fuels (petroleum, biofuels and other liquids), demand growth in non-OECD countries is mainly from the transportation sector, reaching 16 million barrels per day, reflecting a rapid increase in vehicle ownership; industrial demand growth related to petrochemicals is 8 million barrels per day. Driven by consumer choice, stricter policies and technological advances, motor vehicle fuel economy will grow at an average annual rate of 2.1% over the next 20 years, so although the number of motor vehicles has more than doubled, efficiency gains have curbed transportation fuel demand. increase.

Among fossil fuels, the cleanest natural gas demand is the fastest growing, with an average annual growth rate of 1.9%, and oil growth is slightly higher than coal. Driven by the Middle East and Russia, about half of the global gas supply growth comes from conventional gas produced in non-OECD countries. From the perspective of shale gas development, North America currently provides almost all shale gas supply, which will still account for about 3/4 in 2035. China is the most promising country outside North America, accounting for 13% of global shale gas growth. By 2035, China and North America account for about 85% of global shale gas production.

The fate of coal will change dramatically. As the industrialization process in non-OECD countries will slow down, the average annual growth rate will slow down from 7% since 2000 to 2.5% in the next 20 years, coupled with the implementation of environmental protection policies and the impact of lower market gas prices, coal. The fastest growing fossil fuels since 2000 will become the slowest fuel.

In non-fossil fuels, the share of renewable energy (including biofuels) will increase rapidly, from the current 3% to 8% in 2035, and surpassed nuclear power in the early 1920s, surpassing in the early 1930s. Hydropower.

Power generation is an industry in which all fuels compete. The proportion of fuels has changed rapidly in the past: the proportion of oil increased in the 1960s and declined in the 1970s; the proportion of nuclear power increased in the 70s and 80s, and declined in this century; The proportion has risen in the 1990s and this century. China will promote global nuclear power growth, with an average annual growth rate of 11% and an increase of more than 1 trillion kWh by 2035.

"Outlook" predicts that the biggest change in the power generation industry is the decline in the proportion of coal, although coal will still be the dominant fuel, accounting for more than 1/3 of power generation fuel, but lower than the current 44%. The share of coal and other fuels will shrink sharply, and the proportion of renewable energy will increase.

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Technical data sheet

 

Technical Data

Min                            Max                     Test Method

 

Water-Soluble Content [%]                                                              0.5                   DIN EN ISO 787 Part 3 (1995)

Sieve Residue (0.045mm) [%]                                                          0.1                   DIN 53195 (1990)

PH Value                                                          7.0                               10                    DIN EN ISO 787 Part 9 (1995)

Free Sulfur [%]                                                                                   0.05                  DIN 55913 (1972)

105°C Moisture (After Prod.) [%]                                                    1.0                   DIN EN ISO 787 Part 2 (1995)

Oil Absorption [g/100g]                                 30.0                           40.0                  DIN EN ISO 787 Part 5 (1995)

Thermo Stability                                             300°C                         350°C               Manufacturer standard

Lead content                                                                                      30ppm             EN71 Part3:1994+A1:2000/AC:2002,ICP-OES

Other heavy metals(Cr,Cd,Hg,As)                                                     N.D                 EN71 Part3:1994+A1:2000/AC:2002,ICP-OES

Specific gravity                                                  2.35                           2.35                GB21782-2008

Acid fastness                                                                                     1 degree(poor)

Alkali fastness                                      2                          3 degree (good) 

Average Particle size(µm)                              1.7                             1.9

Light fastness                                                    7                              8 degree

           




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