Oil prices increased after the Lantern Festival

Oil prices have seen an upward trend following the Lantern Festival. According to monitoring by several market institutions, as of the close of February 15, the change rate for crude oil in the three major regions has reached 4.29%, opening the first price adjustment window for refined oil products this year. However, due to the ongoing Spring Festival holiday and weekends, the expected price increase may be delayed by a few days. Some analysts suggest that the adjustment could be postponed until after the Lantern Festival. According to Zhuo Chuang Information, the expected price increase is approximately 350–400 yuan per ton, which translates to a rise of 0.27–0.31 yuan per liter for 93# gasoline and 0.30–0.34 yuan per liter for 0 # diesel. This means that 93# gasoline (equivalent to Beijing 92#) in the Beijing-Shanghai-Guangzhou area will once again exceed 8 yuan per liter, while 97# gasoline (Beijing 95#) in most parts of China will enter the 8-yuan range. The wholesale price of refined oil has been rising steadily, with the three-region crude oil change rate reaching 2.18% by the end of February 6. During the Spring Festival, international oil prices remained at high levels for several consecutive days, pushing the change rate higher. Monitoring data from various agencies indicate that as of the close of February 15, the three-region crude oil change rate surpassed 4%, triggering the price increase window. As the change rate continues to climb, domestic refined oil wholesale prices are also on the rise. After the Spring Festival, downstream customers have witnessed a bullish market, with refinery prices being pushed up across the board. Some local refineries have even increased their prices by more than 200 yuan per ton. Since the current price is still below the national maximum wholesale limit, it is expected that refined oil wholesale prices will continue to rise in the coming period. Regarding the exact timing of the price adjustment, some analysts believe that the National Development and Reform Commission may implement the increase immediately, setting a new precedent after the first Spring Festival. However, others argue that the price hike might be delayed until the Lantern Festival.

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