Up to 6.3, the spot market did not continue the “ maximum limitâ€, traders believe that there is still appreciation in the market recently (Reporter Su Manli) Yesterday, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.2992, which continued to rise by 18 basis points from the previous trading day. It rose above the 6.3 level and hit a new high since May 11. However, in the spot market, the RMB against the US dollar did not continue the “maximum limit†trend of the previous two trading days, and there was a shock callback. In the morning, the central bank price of the central bank was approached for the third consecutive day, and it hit a five-and-a-half-month high. As a result, the spot exchange rate hit a new high in the morning and approached the upper limit of the daily volatility range. Traders said that yesterday's morning settlement was the mainstay, but in the afternoon, there was a purchase of US$400 million to US$500 million. In addition, the euro weakened, and the RMB began to pull back against the US dollar during the afternoon trading session, eventually closing at 6.2438. From the spot price trend, the spot price of the yuan against the US dollar has appreciated by 2.5% since the low point in late July. Real estate, brokerage, aviation and paper industries will benefit more. Yesterday, the Shanghai stock market fell 0.35%, Shenzhen stock market fell 0.46%, and the paper industry rose 2.54% against the market, the highest increase. “There is still a net settlement in the whole day, which means that the short-term appreciation trend of the RMB is not over, and from the attitude of the central bank setting a high middle price continuously, there is still a period of appreciation for the RMB,†the trader said. Wang Zhihao, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank, expects the yuan to appreciate moderately against the US dollar in 2013. The exchange rate of the yuan against the US dollar is expected to rise from 6.31 at the end of 2012 to 6.19 at the end of 2013. The appreciation rate is limited or limited. In the previous period, the renminbi has been depreciating, and domestic funds have also shown signs of outflow. According to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange last Friday, China’s capital and financial deficit in the third quarter was $71 billion, a deficit for two consecutive quarters. However, after the Fed launched the third round of quantitative easing in September, the major emerging market countries in the world are now facing pressure from capital inflows and local currency appreciation. Hong Kong also faced pressure on the appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened in the exchange rate several times. Since QE3, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by 0.55%. However, some investors believe that the appreciation of the renminbi may only be a short-term trend. Li Quansheng, the equity fund manager of Boss Healthcare, believes that the current short-term appreciation of the renminbi is “relatively imaginaryâ€. Under the current uncertain economic outlook in China, the basis for the long-term appreciation of the renminbi does not exist. "International hot money flows into Hong Kong, but there is no significant inflow to the mainland. On the contrary, some mainland hot stocks are gradually flowing into Hong Kong. Therefore, it is not the impact of the appreciation of the renminbi, but more attention should be paid to the continued depreciation of the renminbi. What to do when it is." Li Quansheng said. Despite the recent strong performance of the RMB against the US dollar, the overseas non-deliverable forward market NDF, which is used to measure the overseas market's expectation of RMB appreciation, still has some depreciation expectations, and the long-term foreign exchange settlement and sales will continue to show a deficit.
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