According to the Hong Kong Wen Wei Po report, CCB International, a subsidiary of China Construction Bank, recently released a report predicting that China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, and the economy has bottomed out. The report also predicts that the deflationary situation will cause the central bank to have room to cut interest rates in the first half of the year.
Deflation or continued until the end of the third quarter
CCB International’s report predicts that China’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 6.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, and the economy has bottomed out; GDP growth is expected to be 7.5% this year. Meanwhile, the deflationary situation has caused the central bank to cut interest rates in the first half of the year. .
It is reported that as a leading indicator reflecting the economic situation, power generation and electricity consumption are considered to be the weather vane for future warming. According to sources close to the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid Dispatching Center, data from various power grid dispatch centers continued to experience negative growth in March. Among them, the national power grid's dispatching volume in March decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, and in late March, it decreased by 2%. This caused the power consumption in the first quarter to fall by about 2.2%. The electricity consumption of the dispatch center accounts for 60%-70% of the electricity consumption of the whole society. This shows that the electricity consumption situation in the whole society in March is still not optimistic.
CCB International’s report stated that the Chinese government still has more resources to implement more policies to stimulate investment and economic growth. We are confident that China will be the first large economy to emerge from the gloom and attract foreign investment.
The report pointed out that due to higher-than-expected credit growth and the price of public services such as water, electricity and gas may increase, the estimated value of this year's CPI (Consumer Consumer Price Index) will be raised from -1.5% to -0.5%; China The deflationary situation may continue until the end of the third quarter.
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