In the first half of 2012, due to the European debt crisis, the weak US economy and the slowdown of China's economic growth, domestic and international market demand was sluggish and tungsten prices continued to decline. The price of black tungsten concentrate decreased from 137.139 million yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 12.1-123 million yuan/ton at the end of June, a decrease of 12%. APT and tungsten carbide powder prices fell to 1.91-19.2 million yuan / ton and 302-304 yuan / kg. At the beginning of the year, tungsten prices continued to decline, reaching a low point in the first half of the year in mid-April. The prices of tungsten concentrates and APTs fell to a low of 119,000 yuan/ton and 186,000 yuan/ton respectively. Subsequently, due to the continuous decline in the previous price, the purchase of enterprises was stagnant, and the raw material inventory continued to be consumed. After the tungsten concentrate was lower than the psychological price of 120,000 yuan/ton, some enterprises and traders began to purchase goods, and the price rebounded slightly. In May, Minmetals Group and Ganzhou Tungsten Association raised the price of 65% black tungsten concentrate to 127,000 yuan/ton, which played a positive role in guiding the market price. At the end of May, the price of tungsten concentrate was once raised to 130,000 yuan/ton. However, the price increase of tungsten has not been able to last for a long time. Mining companies have tried to push up the price of gold by guiding the price increase, in anticipation to reverse the continuous decline in tungsten prices, but since the downstream demand has not recovered, after a brief increase, the price of tungsten began to fall. As of the end of June, the price of black tungsten concentrate fell to 1.21-123 million yuan / ton, while APT followed down to 191.192 million yuan / ton, which is close to the April low. On the international front, transactions in the European market are scarce. In the first quarter, European APT prices fell slightly, from 430-445 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the year to 428-430 US dollars / ton at the end of March. Most foreign companies have postponed their procurement plans until the second half of the year, and market transactions are light. In the second quarter, the European market remained silent. Except for the slightly better performance of the tungsten-iron Rotterdam warehouse, other varieties underperformed, especially the APT offer dropped sharply. In mid-April, the domestic price fell to 360-395 USD/ton. Low point. Then, with the domestic price, there was a slight rebound. At the end of June, the APT prices in Europe and Hong Kong were stable at 390-415 USD/ton and 390-400 USD/ton. International ferro-tungsten prices are slightly better. In recent years, the export tariff of tungsten and iron has remained at 20%, the export volume has dropped sharply, and the annual production of domestic ferro-tungsten has also decreased to 6,000 tons. At the moment when the Sino-Vietnamese border is closed and the smuggling of tungsten and iron is reduced, the supply of ferro-tungsten abroad is even more tense. At the beginning of the year, Rotterdam's tungsten iron price was only 47.5-48.5 US dollars / kg. In the case of other tungsten products prices continued to fall, the price of tungsten iron remained at the high level of 54-55.5 US dollars / kg at the end of June, an increase of 14%. 1. Foreign demand is weak, and exports are down by 19%. In the first half of 2012, China's exports of tungsten products reached 9,120 tons (metal content), a year-on-year decrease of 20%. The European economy is in a downturn and demand is weak, which seriously affects China's exports of tungsten products. The current monthly export volume is still significantly lower than last year's average. It also reflects that there is still no obvious sign of recovery in foreign market demand, and enterprises are worried about future export situation. According to customs statistics, in May 2012, China's exports of tungsten products were 1,831 tons, an increase of 27.51% from the previous month. From January to May, the export volume of tungsten was 7,320 tons, down 19.25% year-on-year. Judging from the main smelting varieties exported, yellow tungsten oxide, blue tungsten oxide, APT and tungsten carbide are still dominant. In addition to the small increase of blue tungsten oxide, several other varieties include APT, tungsten carbide and yellow oxide. Tungsten has declined, especially the decline in APT exports is more significant. Among them, from January to May, 1231 tons of yellow tungsten oxide was exported, down 25.74% year-on-year; blue tungsten oxide was 2,230 tons, up 14.17% year-on-year; APT 796 tons, down 55.03%; tungsten carbide 1115 tons, down 17.23% year-on-year. Compared with the impact of the 2009 financial crisis, the current reduction in exports has not yet reached the level. In 2009, foreign procurement was in a state of sharp decline. The annual export volume was 12,000 tons, which was 50% lower than the 24,000 tons in 2008. After entering 2012, the Japanese and American markets are still able to maintain basic purchases, and the purchase volume is 85% of the normal level. The impact on the European market is more serious, and many consumer companies are suspended. Therefore, on average, China’s tungsten exports in the first half of 2012 were year-on-year. The decline is about 20%, and the situation is slightly better than in 2009. China's tungsten imports are relatively stable. In May 2012, imports of 488 tons of tungsten increased by 37.46% from the previous month. From January to May, imports of 2,209 tons of tungsten increased by 5.59% year-on-year. Among them, 1918 tons of imported tungsten concentrates were accumulated, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year. The import areas include Russia, Canada, and Rwanda. It is estimated that China's tungsten imports will be 2,659 tons in the first half of 2012, a year-on-year increase of 10%. 2. Supply continues to grow According to the data released by the Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the output of China's tungsten concentrate (65% tungsten trioxide) was 10,531 tons in May, a decrease of 13% from the previous month, including 3,696 tons in Jiangxi, 3,573 tons in Hunan and 1,853 tons in Henan. From January to May, the cumulative production of tungsten concentrates was 44,121 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.70%, of which Jiangxi produced a total of 15,964 tons, an increase of 12.29%; Hunan Province, 13,567 tons, an increase of 17.00%; Henan, 7030 tons, an increase of 21.73%, three The total regional output totaled 36,561 tons, accounting for 83% of China's total output. Supported by the significant increase in industry profits in 2010 and 2011, China's mining enterprises have maintained a steady start in the case of continued weak market demand, and no production has been reduced. It is estimated that in the first half of the year, China's tungsten concentrate production was 55,121 tons (equivalent to 28,387 tons of metal), an increase of 5%. China's major tungsten ore concentrates include China Minmetals Corporation, Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Industry, Xiamen Tungsten Industry, Jiangxi Rare Earth Rares, Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Company, Jiangxi Yaosheng Industry and Trade, and Zhangzhou Shirui New Materials Co., Ltd. Among them, the output of tungsten concentrate of Minmetals Group mainly comes from Xintianling tungsten mine. Other mines are basically produced according to national quotas, and the output does not change much. The current output accounts for 23% of the national total output. Since 2011, thanks to the increased recycling capacity of the white tungsten project, Luomo Group's tungsten concentrate production has jumped to second place. In 2004, Luomo Group cooperated with Xiamen Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd., and the 4,500 ton/day white tungsten comprehensive recovery project was put into operation. In 2008, Luomo Group's 6000 tons/day and 9000 tons/day white tungsten comprehensive recovery projects were put into production successively, and the comprehensive recovery rate of white tungsten increased. In 2010, the output of Luoluo-tungsten concentrate (equivalent to 65% of tungsten trioxide) exceeded 5,000 tons, and the output in 2011 increased to 7,000 tons, which drove a significant increase in tungsten production in Henan. Judging from the monthly data, in 2012, except for the small amount of production due to holidays in January, the output after February was more than 10,000 tons. It seems that in the later stage, unless there is a strong restriction policy, China’s tungsten The monthly output of the mine should be maintained at 11,000 tons and the annual output is about 130,000 tons. This is not good news for the current severe domestic and international macroeconomic situation. We can only pin our hopes on the consumer market in the second half of the year, so as not to affect the downward price of the mine. At the end of June, some enterprises have already reduced production in the mining industry. Recently, the two main producing areas of Jiangxi and Hunan have gradually entered the rainy season. In addition, the local government has strict environmental protection and safety, especially the market demand is not smooth, and enterprises are not willing to sell goods at low prices. Therefore, in order to reduce production pressure, some mining enterprises have already reduced production. In terms of smelting, although the downstream demand is not smooth and the procurement is reduced, most of the enterprises still maintain the operating rate of about 80% in order to maintain the operation. For the enterprises with long industrial chain, most of the minerals are processed to the smelting products, so we It is believed that the current market inventory is concentrated on APT products. It is estimated that the APT production in the first half of 2012 will be about 40,000 tons, which is basically the same as the same period of last year, and the inventory is over 5,000 tons. 3. Consumption continues to be weak (1) Cemented carbide field From the macroeconomic point of view, consumption, investment and trade data show that domestic demand has slowed further, which directly leads to weak domestic demand for tungsten. According to the latest data from the cemented carbide branch, in the first quarter of 2012, the actual production of cemented carbide in the country was about 5,000 tons, down 7.41% year-on-year. Among the 39 companies in the association statistics, 25 companies have reduced production to varying degrees, and 14 companies have increased production. The main reason is that there are many types of cemented carbide products, and they are widely used in high-hardness and high-strength processing. The value of tools and products is obvious. Therefore, the impact of the slowdown in macroeconomic growth has been weakened. In particular, some small enterprises have more flexible sales and their output has not decreased. From the specific product point of view, the output of cutting blades and mining alloys decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of nearly 30%, and wear parts only 3%, which is a better performance product. In the second quarter, market demand is still not improving, and companies are facing greater sales pressure. It is estimated that in the first half of 2012, the actual production of cemented carbide in the country was about 11,500 tons, down 16% year-on-year. Cutting inserts have always been one of the important products of cemented carbide. In 2011, the output of cutting inserts accounted for 26% of the finished carbide products. The market demand has a great impact on the production of cemented carbide industry. Cutting inserts are mainly used in machine tools, especially metal cutting machines and CNC metal cutting machines. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total output of metal cutting machine tools in China was 311,600 units in January-May 2012, a decrease of 2.63% year-on-year. The output of CNC metal cutting machine tools was 82,800 units, a decrease of 16.39% year-on-year. The decline in the output of cutting machine tools directly affects the demand for cemented carbide inserts. It was learned from the China Machine Tool Industry Association that due to the decrease in new orders, the Association significantly lowered the expected growth rate of the industry output in 2012, and expected the total profit growth rate to fall further. According to the data in 2011, the machine tool industry achieved a profit of 44.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 28.0%; the output value margin was 6.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous year; the industry's output growth rate was as high as 32.1%. It is expected that the economic operation speed in 2012 will show a significant downward trend compared with 2011, and the growth rate of output value will remain at around 15%, and the growth rate will slow down significantly. After entering April, the consumer market also sent some good news. On April 18th, the Ministry of Science and Technology announced the “12th Five-Year Plan for High-Speed ​​Train Technology Developmentâ€, which aims to restart investment to stimulate economic growth and avoid a hard landing of the domestic economy. Promoting the construction of high-speed rail, in addition to indirectly stimulating domestic investment, it also directly affects the machinery processing industry, and the demand for domestic cemented carbide processing tools is good news. In addition, with the high price of tungsten in the past two years, the industry's profit has increased significantly, and companies have also focused on the cemented carbide project. At present, in the next 1-3 years, it has become the concentration stage of China's new cemented carbide projects, and the production capacity will increase significantly. This will be a long-term good news for stimulating China's tungsten demand growth. The recently reported cemented carbide projects include: Zhangzhou Xingguo Tungsten Smelting and Deep Processing Project. In May, Xingguo County and Northern Materials Science and Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd., Jiangxi Hongjing Mining Co., Ltd. and Zhuhai Meilixin New Materials Co., Ltd. held a signing ceremony for the construction of tungsten powder and tungsten products deep processing projects. The project has a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan and is planned to be operated in three phases. The first phase relies on the existing tungsten resources of Jiangxi Hongjing Mining Co., Ltd. to build the capacity to produce 3,000 tons of tungsten powder and 3,000 tons of tungsten carbide powder per year. The research and development of products; the second phase of the construction of tungsten deep processing products, the development of hard alloy products and deep processing products of mineral resources such as molybdenum and rare metals; the third phase of construction of hard alloy products and deep processing of mineral resources such as molybdenum and rare metals Product production line. After the completion of the project, the annual output value will reach 3 billion yuan and the annual tax revenue will be 100 million yuan. Repairing the Golden Heron Cemented Carbide Project. In March, the Jiujiang Golden Heron Cemented Carbide Project, which was settled in the Xiushui (Jiujiang) Industrial Park, was officially started. Jiujiang Jinlu Cemented Carbide Project has a total investment of 2 billion yuan. The project is jointly invested by listed company Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. and China Minmetals Group. It covers an area of ​​265 acres and a building area of ​​140,000 square meters. The project adopts the world's leading cemented carbide technology to build an annual output of 6,000 tons of tungsten powder and 4,000 tons of cemented carbide projects. The first phase of cemented carbide production capacity is planned to be 2,000 tons per year. It is expected to be completed and put into production in June 2013. After reaching the standard, the annual sales income will be 1.1 billion yuan and the tax will be 200 million yuan. Zhuzhou Guangyuan Hard Materials Co., Ltd. was completed and put into production. In March, Zhuguang Jiulong Economic Development Zone Xinguangyuan Hard Surface Materials Co., Ltd. was completed and put into operation. The project was invested and constructed by Zhuzhou Guangyuan Hard Materials Co., Ltd., which has entered the park. In May 2010, the investment contract was signed with an investment of 20 million yuan. The project covers an area of ​​about 10 mu. The company specializes in the production of three series of products: one is metal carbide series (tantalum carbide, tantalum carbide, titanium carbide, vanadium carbide, molybdenum carbide, duplex carbide); the second is hard surface material series (crystalline tungsten powder, crystalline tungsten carbide powder) , the surface is coated with cemented carbide, cast tungsten carbide powder, sprayed molybdenum powder); the third is hard alloy series products. It is estimated that after the project is completed and put into production, the annual output of various types of hard materials can reach 300 tons, and the annual industrial output value can reach 60 million yuan, and the tax paid over 1 million yuan. Sumitomo Electric Hard Alloy (Changzhou) Co., Ltd. was opened. Sumitomo Electric Co., Ltd. invested Sumitomo Electric Hard Alloy (Changzhou) Co., Ltd. opened in Jintong Industrial Park on March 2. Sumitomo Electric Hard Alloy (Changzhou) Co., Ltd.'s parent company Sumitomo Electric Hard Alloy was independently produced in 2003 from Sumitomo Electric Industries Co., Ltd., specializing in the production of cutting tools, mainly engaged in superhard alloys, CBN sintered bodies and diamond sintered body cutting. Development and manufacture of tools, wear-resistant tools and materials, laser parts, and parts related to the rigid diamond electronics industry. The first phase of the project was registered at US$11.7 million with a total investment of US$29.25 million. A total of 33.51 million US dollars will be planned for around 2013. The cemented carbide in Zhangzhou area developed rapidly. The output of alloys in Zhangzhou is increasing year by year. In 2011, the output of cemented carbide in Ganzhou City reached 1,800 tons, an increase of 30%. In particular, Zhangzhou Zhongrui New Materials Co., Ltd. produced more than 400 tons of cemented carbide in 2011. According to the announcement of Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry, the company's cemented carbide production in 550 tons in 2011, the current high investment, high-precision coating blade technical transformation project with a total investment of 310 million yuan is also underway. Jiangxi Yaosheng Industry and Trade Co., Ltd. has invested a total of 1.28 billion yuan in high-performance, high-precision and high-hard alloy deep processing projects, which have entered the stage of infrastructure construction and equipment procurement. The energy saving assessment of Zhangzhou Haisheng High Performance Cemented Carbide Tool Project was approved. In May, the Provincial Development and Reform Commission research principle agreed with the energy-saving evaluation report of the annual high-performance tungsten carbide tool project of Zhangzhou Haisheng Cemented Carbide Co., Ltd. After the completion of the project, the production scale of 3 million high-performance cemented carbide tools will be formed. The project will be built in the northern part of Hong Kong Industrial Park, Zhangzhou Development Zone, Jiangxi Province. From this point of view, the future cemented carbide field will still be the largest area of ​​tungsten consumption, and with more investment and new projects completed, the share will gradually increase. (2) Tungsten special steel field There are many tungsten products in the special steel field. The largest amount is high-speed tool steel. Others include alloy tool steel and die steel, but the amount is small. In the first half of the year, the output of high-speed tool steel increased first and then decreased. According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, the output of high-speed tool steel in the first quarter of 2012 was 24,909 tons, an increase of 8.5% over the 22,951 tons in the same period of 2011; the output in the second quarter fell year-on-year, and the cumulative output of high-speed tool steel in January-May was 37,909 tons. Reduced by 2.15% year-on-year. The output of other special tungsten steel products is not optimistic. The output of alloy tool steel in January-May was 113,389 tons, down 11% year-on-year; the mold steel was 170,711 tons, down 8% year-on-year. Therefore, the total demand for tungsten in the special steel industry in the first half of the year was 4,246 tons, down 10% year-on-year. Tiangong International is the first person in the production of tool steel. It is understood that as early as 2010, Tiangong International Tool and Die Steel has successfully advanced to the top three in the world, and the first in China. In 2011, Tiangong International's production, sales, foreign trade, export and profits and other economic indicators all maintained a high growth rate of more than 50%, a record high, and achieved a sales income of 10.88 billion yuan. In 2011, Tiangong International high-speed tool steel production was 56,285 tons, and tungsten consumption was 3,939 tons, accounting for 58% of the total high-speed tool steel to tungsten demand. According to statistics from the Special Steel Association, from January to May 2012, Tiangong International's high-speed tool steel production reached 23,513 tons, down 2% from the same period last year's 23,925 tons. (3) Tungsten products and chemicals From the product point of view, the sales volume of tungsten wire in the first half of the year was not good, and the market demand decreased significantly. In addition, in the process of continuous decline of tungsten concentrates, buyers are more cautious in buying, processing companies need to bear the price difference caused by the production cycle, profits shrink, and capital pressure is greater. Tungsten electricity, tungsten rods and industry demand are facing the same problem. Although most companies have chosen to start production, there are few corporate orders and the situation is not good. At present, the price of tungsten rods has dropped to 410 yuan/kg, and the price of tungsten electrodes is 520 yuan/kg. Faced with the complex and volatile domestic and international economic environment, some enterprises began to consider shifting their focus to other metal production. We expect tungsten consumption of tungsten products to fall by 5% in the first half of the year to 2,200 tons. Tungsten chemicals are used in small quantities, and the demand for tungsten is around 1,500 tons. (4) Oversupply in the domestic tungsten market in the first half of the year In the first half of 2012, the tungsten market supplied over 6,856 tons of metal. On the demand side, domestic tungsten consumption was 16,871 tons, down 12% year-on-year; export was 9,120 tons, down 20% year-on-year; on supply side, import was 2,659 tons, up 10% year-on-year, tungsten ore supply was 28,387 tons, up 5% year-on-year, waste tungsten recycling 18,000 tons, a slight decrease from the same period last year. In the first half of the year, affected by the big environment, the market demand was not good, the overall supply was over, and the price of tungsten concentrate fell by 12%. (5) Macroeconomic performance HSBC China released data showing that China's HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) preview value fell sharply to 48.7 in May, which is the seventh consecutive month under the watershed, indicating that it is made in China. The difficulties faced by the industry have intensified, and the pressure on the downstream tungsten consumer market is still very large. Experts predict that the growth rate of industrial added value in the second quarter of 2012 will be significantly lower than that in the first quarter; the value added of real estate will decline slightly, and the decline may be narrowed; the growth rate of value added of the financial industry may be slightly higher than the first quarter. Overall, China's economic growth rate in the second quarter is likely to decline further. Experts said that the biggest change in the economic trajectory in the first half of 2010 was the policy of “steady growth†that the Chinese government intensively launched at the end of May. This will effectively reverse the decline in investment growth and the weak growth of consumption through “investment releaseâ€, “consumption start†and “positive positioning of macroeconomic policiesâ€, reverse market confidence and break “de-leverage†and “de-stockingâ€. The interaction's self-reinforcing mechanism prompted China's macro economy to bottom out at the end of the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. 4. The price forecast for the second half of the year is still dependent on the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad. The downstream demand is the basis for determining the price trend. On May 23, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council presided over the State Council executive meeting, which emphasized that steady growth should be placed in a more important position. In May, the Development and Reform Commission released more than 100 billion yuan, and it was said that the 2.0 version was 4 trillion yuan; the CSRC issued a document to support the listing and refinancing of private enterprises, encourage private capital stock brokers to transfuse economic development; and the Ministry of Railways has just announced that it has received 2 trillion yuan. Bank credits, a new round of stimulus investment plans are on the horizon. Demand for tungsten is reflected in many areas of basic economic construction, including the automotive industry, extractive industries, mechanical processing, railway construction, etc. With the support of macroeconomic policies, domestic demand will gradually improve in the future. However, this still requires a cycle. It is expected that during the gradual advancement of stimulus policies, market confidence is expected to recover in the fourth quarter, and domestic demand is gradually picking up. In the international market, multiple news from Europe has once again aggravated investor concerns about the European debt crisis. Germany's June IFO corporate sentiment judgment index fell for the second consecutive month, hitting the lowest in the past two years; although the heads of Germany, France, Italy and Spain passed a package of 130 billion euros to stimulate economic plans, but the move ultimately to the market The impact remains to be seen; Moody's downgraded the ratings of 15 banks, including Bank of America and Citibank, to make the global financial market turbulent and unrecognizable, and promote risk aversion. Spain’s sovereign credit rating has been lowered, and Greece’s worries of exiting the euro zone have once again shrouded the market. The worrying economic situation in Europe has led to a sluggish demand for tungsten products. It is expected that the tungsten market will continue its current weak trend in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, with the promotion of domestic and foreign stimulus plans, the demand for tungsten market is expected to improve slightly. In the first half of the year, the average price of tungsten concentrate was 127,000 yuan/ton, down 8% year-on-year. Compared with the high price of 158,000 yuan/ton in 2011, the decline was 19%. It is expected that the tungsten market will continue to be weak in the third quarter. The average price of tungsten concentrate is 127,000 yuan/ton. After the market improved slightly in the fourth quarter, the average price was raised to 135,000 yuan/ton. In 2012, the annual average price of tungsten concentrate was 130 million yuan/ton, down 8% year-on-year.
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