US PV double-reverse hammers attacked the two sides of the Taiwan Strait

Abstract Although the WTO has just ruled that the United States has imposed improper tariffs on solar photovoltaic products produced in China, this has not brought much positive impact on the “secondary double-reverse” initiated by the US on Chinese PV products. Following the announcement last month...
Although the WTO has just ruled that the United States has imposed improper tariffs on solar photovoltaic products produced in China, this has not brought much positive impact on the "secondary double-reverse" initiated by the US on Chinese PV products. Following the release of the countervailing duty rate last month, the US Department of Commerce announced the preliminary results of anti-dumping against PV products in China. Different from the past, PV companies in Taiwan have also suffered a serious blow in this trade barrier.

Taiwanese enterprises are "dead"

The Taiwanese industry thought that the tax rate imposed by the US on its ruling would be much lower than that of the mainland, thus gaining a comparative advantage and improving its competitiveness, but the results were very different.

The US Commerce Department said in a statement that the US initially determined that there were dumping behaviors of crystalline silicon photovoltaic products from China. The dumping margin of Chinese mainland products was 26.33% to 165.04%, and the dumping margin of Taiwanese products was 27.59% to 44.18%. Based on this preliminary ruling, the US will notify Customs and Border Protection to impose a cash deposit on the relevant product producers and exporters.

As soon as the news came out, the prices of related stocks in Taiwan began to fall sharply. The local media did not hesitate to use the titles of "Taiwan's battery manufacturers are in a state of extinction", "the solar power plant anti-dumping duties are higher than expected, and the operators are dumbfounded".

"The reason for this is mainly because the Taiwanese industry has been too optimistic about this 'double anti-' expectations." Zhang Wei, investment director of Junsheng Investment Management Co., Ltd. said in an interview, "The Taiwanese industry thought it was the US side. The tax rate for the ruling will be much lower than that of the mainland, thus gaining a comparative advantage and improving their own competitiveness. It is not surprising that the results are very different. It is no wonder that the reports of the Taiwan media are all the feeling of 'the sky has fallen.'"

"The results of this judgment are similar to the tax rates in Taiwan and mainland China. There is no differential tax rate to make Taiwan products more competitive. It is a big defeat for Taiwan's solar photovoltaic industry." EnergyTrend Research Manager, Green Energy Division, TrendForce Qi Jiazheng told reporters, "At the same time, the 'double anti-' has made the transfer effect of mainland players no longer appear, and the future development of Taiwan-related players will face enormous challenges."

Qi Jiazheng pointed out that the sale of solar photovoltaic products produced in Taiwan to the United States is subject to more than 25% anti-dumping duties. The industry cannot absorb through the procurement or process links. Compared with the trend of the US local market, only high-efficiency products retain some of the competitive strength. Therefore, the planning and layout of high-efficiency products by Taiwanese factories will directly affect the future development of their products in the North American market.

It is worth mentioning that this decision does not impose any restrictions on the third-party products exported to the United States. Therefore, the overseas layout of Taiwanese companies has become the key to long-term development. “At present, Motech has production bases in Japan and North America. Sino-US Jinggang has completed the layout of European components. Xujing Energy and Japan’s joint-venture component factory e-Solar have taken the lead, and colleagues are also preparing to set up component production lines in Mexico. "In order to maintain competitiveness in the North American market, the process of Taiwanese overseas deployment will be forced to accelerate, and the most tax-efficient Motech may rethink the role of its North American production base in the group."

"Actually, Taiwanese companies have been unable to sit still and have the intention of bowing to the US." Zhang told reporters, "In order to avoid high tax rates, some companies intend to propose a "limit price agreement" to the US Department of Commerce to terminate the entire Anti-dumping investigation procedures, but it is difficult to say if the US can agree."

Mainland companies have confidence

In addition to the previously announced anti-subsidy preliminary ruling results, the "double-reverse" combined tax rate is between 29.3% and 82.38%. In the face of high tax rates, mainland companies are still full of confidence in the US market.

At the end of 2012, after the US’s first “double-reverse” finalization of photovoltaic products produced in mainland China, many mainland companies have used Taiwan’s Taiwan as a relay station for entrepot trade, evading high tax rates by purchasing Taiwan-made batteries, Taiwan Enterprises have also gained benefits, which is exactly the “transfer effect” mentioned by Lieutenant Zhong Jia.

Today, this road has been completely blocked. The person in charge of the Trade Relief and Investigation Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce said that the US side ignored the facts and legal basis, applied conflicting rules of origin, and frequently imposed restrictions on the same photovoltaic products in China. This is an abuse of trade remedy measures.

"This time, the United States has restricted the origin of photovoltaic products according to the production process, and has not elaborated on the various situations that may arise. For example, the silicon wafers and batteries produced overseas are processed into components in the country and then exported to the United States. There will be restrictions.” Zhang Wei said, “But what is certain is that the way to put the battery in Taiwan is definitely not working.”

Zhang Wei analyzed that before the mainland companies used a large number of batteries produced in Taiwan in order to avoid double-reverse, the cost was increased to some extent. In the future, mainland companies can use their own batteries to reduce costs to the limit. At the same time, according to their own circumstances, enterprises can choose a production method and a relatively favorable tax rate in the two “double-reverse” results in combination with the rules of origin proposed by the US. But even so, China's PV products are hard to compete in the US market. The profit of photovoltaic products is already very low. It is not realistic to digest such a high tax rate.

However, mainland companies are still full of confidence in the US market. In addition to the previously announced anti-subsidy preliminary ruling results, the "double-reverse" combined tax rate is between 29.3% and 82.38%. In response to the high tax rate of 29.3%, the big US-based Trina Solar told reporters that Trina Solar is confident in the growth of US business and will further strengthen and consolidate its market position in the US. At the same time, it will continue to actively fight and maintain legality. rights and interests. Faced with a tax rate of 47.27%, Yingli, which had revenues of more than 20% of its total revenue last year, said it would not give up the US market and may increase the price of photovoltaic products in the United States.

Fortunately, according to data provided by Sun Guangbin, president of the Solar Energy Products Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, 40% of China's mainland PV products are exported to the Asian market, with 20% in the US and Europe, and the rest. The shares flow to developing countries in Africa, Southeast Asia and other regions.

"The diversified development path of China's mainland PV companies is getting more and more smooth, and their dependence on European and American markets is weakening." Zhang Wei said, "It is obvious that 'double anti-' has succeeded in forcing the growth of enterprises."

View of all parties

"Double Counter" promoters:

@SolarWord: This decision blocked the loopholes in China's PV manufacturers using the battery manufacturing components produced by Taiwanese factories to circumvent and bypass US tariffs. We are very satisfied with the role of the US government in the conflict between US domestic companies and foreign companies, which removes the barriers to participation in fair competition for domestic products. We have to compete with dumped products, and today's bill will have a significant impact on the expansion and upgrading of US manufacturing.

American industry:

@美国太阳能行业协会: Many US solar manufacturers rely on the global PV supply chain, and US practices can also harm the interests of downstream companies in the US solar industry.

@American Fair Solar Alliance: This is a "major setback" for the entire US solar industry, as it will push up the price of US solar products and reduce related jobs.

Mainland China enterprises:

@天合光能: SolarWorld's complaints are free and fair trade principles and are groundless. Trina Solar has a good reputation in the United States for its superior products and services, and will continue to serve many customers and trading partners in the United States. The company is confident in the growth of its business in the United States and will further strengthen and consolidate its market position in the United States. Trina Solar will continue to actively fight and safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.

@英利: This is the Americans who lifted their stones and licked their feet. Although we have cooperated very much in this survey and expected this preliminary result, we still call on our industry to jointly resolve this dispute and focus on the US market with broad growth prospects. We will remain committed to the US solar market and continue to support our partners and projects.

Taiwanese companies:

@Taiwan Sun Optoelectronics Industry Association and new daylight executives Hong Chuanxian: The global solar market has a capacity of about 40GW, and the United States accounts for only over 10% of the global solar market, about 5GW. Operators can work hard to make up for orders from non-US regions such as Europe and Japan. If the products are to continue to be sold, they can also adopt different strategies to supply them. For example, the battery will be commissioned by Taiwanese and mainland manufacturers, and then the components will be sold. Taiwan's battery products will be sold to other regions.

@达能科技: Although the market has recently been waiting for the US anti-dumping initial judgment to appear, and the demand is not strong, resulting in a decline in silicon prices, but Danone products focus on high-efficiency chips, and adopt selective orders and decentralize customers' marketing model. The impact on operations is relatively small, and the company's production is still in normal operation.

@硕禾电子: After the "double anti-" tax rate is determined, due to market adjustments in a short period of time, although market price fluctuations will inevitably, it will also limit future capacity expansion, but it can stimulate demand in emerging markets and mainland domestic demand market, especially mainland demand is expected to grow rapidly. . The Shuohe conductive paste has a higher market share in Taiwan and outside the mainland market. It is expected to benefit from partial conversion, which will not be affected by the single market, and is still optimistic about the long-term growth of demand.

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