Solar Photovoltaic Industry "Sakao Takenori"

At present, most of the photovoltaic companies in China have overseas markets. In particular, some large-scale photovoltaic companies rely on overseas markets to become more severe, and more than 98% of their products still rely on exports. This will give the United States more impact than anti-dumping measures for photovoltaic companies in China. Other industries are much larger. The United States seized this opportunity to suppress China's PV companies and also reminded us to respond to the United States' anti-dumping investigation against Chinese PV companies while paying attention to the necessity of developing the domestic market.

At present, the domestic market is also actively preparing. The country has already released photovoltaic power companies' on-grid tariffs this year. Although there are still some details to be further improved, companies should also use this opportunity to prepare for the development of the domestic market.

Adjust product structure and grasp high added value

At present, the United States is one of the world's leading manufacturers of photovoltaic equipment. This is also the most profitable link in the photovoltaic industry. Chinese companies' previous thin-film battery equipment and polysilicon came from US manufacturers. According to statistics, the U.S. exports to China of photovoltaic production equipment and polysilicon are much larger than China, and the United States has a trade surplus of 1.88 billion U.S. dollars. According to the data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, according to recent surveys, there are currently 28 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions involved in photovoltaics, and there are more than 300 photovoltaic companies in the country, and there is a tendency toward low-level redundant construction. From the survey data, The polysilicon company's production rate of production (the ratio of actual production capacity to planned production capacity) is 54.9%, and the capacity utilization rate (the ratio of actual production to actual production capacity) is only 25.8%.

At present, as the on-grid tariff of photovoltaic power generation gradually approaches the thermal power grid price (to reach 1 yuan/kWh in 2012), China's photovoltaic market will also expand rapidly. In the "12th Five-Year Plan for Photovoltaic Power Generation" compiled by the National Development and Reform Commission Energy Bureau, the domestic PV installation target in 2015 was revised from 5GW to 10GW, and by 2020, the target was revised from at least 20GW to at least 50GW. . This shows that the domestic market is also actively preparing, but our photovoltaic product manufacturing equipment is also mainly dependent on imports, and the biggest profit link is still owned by foreign companies.

At present, we know that from the perspective of the entire crystalline silicon solar energy production chain, domestically produced single-crystal silicon growth furnaces, polysilicon ingot furnaces, wire cutters, single crystal trough cleaning/textile machines and other equipment have approached or reached the international advanced level. Basically, it can meet the needs of the industry, can replace imported equipment, the current market share is relatively high.

Diffusion furnaces and PECVD, domestically applied equipments that are widely used at present are all tube-type. Because they can meet the requirements of the production process and the cost-effectiveness of the equipment is high, the market acceptance of these equipments is also high. With the development of process technology, increase of wafer size, and increase of labor costs, continuous equipment that is more suitable for complete line automation should pay attention and give more policy support.

The key equipments such as domestic multi-wire saws, automatic screen printing machines and rapid high-temperature sintering furnaces have just started trials this year and look forward to more comprehensive breakthroughs, further narrowing the gap with international advanced equipment, and completely breaking the bottleneck of key equipment in the industrial chain. This is even more of an opportunity for us to work hard to break the monopoly under pressure from outside China. For large-size amorphous silicon thin film solar cell devices, it is basically dependent on imports. Compound semiconductor thin film solar cell equipment, China is still blank. This requires us to grasp the innovative development of the equipment, so as to accelerate the reduction of the cost of the battery and increase the conversion efficiency.

PV companies should actively adjust their operating models

We know that the size of solar cell manufacturers is constantly expanding, with annual sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, but such a large amount of sales is a very single product. The final shipments are all solar cell modules, and the market is relatively single, so it is subject to a single market law. The control, once the European and American markets fluctuate, the company will be stalled as a whole, and once the stocks increase due to poor market, funds can not be returned, companies will be difficult to cope with, and the bigger the more difficult the company to support. In 2010, the world's second-largest PV output, Wuxi Suntech, produced 1585MW. According to the average sales price in 2010, it was about RMB 15 per watt. The annual output was about RMB 23.8 billion, which required a monthly output of RMB 1.98 billion. If there are sudden changes in the market and poor sales, like this time the anti-dumping actions of the United States, once successful, will create a very unfavorable situation. Therefore, in the face of market fluctuations, the entire Chinese PV companies will need to adjust their own business models, and the business model that has arisen in 2010 to blindly expand production scales will be tested.

The government's subsidy policy model is also unlikely to be a long-term development model for photovoltaic companies. To adapt to market development and gradually realize the localization of manufacturing equipment core products to reduce costs in accordance with market requirements is a way out for development. Therefore, the kind of short-term speculation and profits that have emerged in previous years. The business model is unlikely to be repeated for a long time. The future photovoltaic industry will be an industry with greater scale, but the profit space tends to be reasonable.

Actively adjust the situation of three heads

On the whole, we know that the production of solar cells should be said to be three, our raw materials are out, our market is out, and our key equipment is out. In fact, the one we really do ourselves is a low-level processing. This low-level processing is a high-energy, high-pollution link. Businesses consume large amounts of electricity during processing, use our coal, and leave the dioxide dioxide in our own air. Our PV cell production in 2010 was the second largest battery in the world and it was sold. The actual use of power generation and clean energy is done abroad. In this stage of production and processing, What we have accomplished domestically is energy consumption and pollution. For our country, this is a very unreasonable situation at present. The solar cells we produce ourselves should be used for production, power plants, and power generation. It should be said that it is the most scientific and most reasonable. The introduction of on-grid tariffs is currently advancing the domestic application of the photovoltaic industry. However, companies are pursuing profits. Domestically, they do not make much, and there is no profit promotion. Therefore, the cost control of enterprises is very important. How to reduce costs and increase conversion efficiency is a common problem faced by domestic photovoltaic companies. Before we implemented the on-grid tariffs for solar PV, foreigners could still subsidize them. We can sell products as they are. However, now that Europe and the United States have reduced or not subsidized subsidies, how can our products become profitable? Therefore, it is necessary to resolve the need for photovoltaic companies to expand domestic demand. If the entire industry is not resolved, it will face a great crisis. Most companies may be eliminated, and this is what we do not want. Of course, the products with excess output value in the industry chain also need to be adjusted. Through this adjustment, a reasonable level of structure can be achieved. The depletion of chemical energy is an indisputable fact. Replacing chemical energy with renewable energy is an inevitable trend.

In short, in recent years, there have been many huge positives in the photovoltaic industry, including the nuclear crisis in Japan, political instability in the Middle East, and soaring oil prices, which will also promote the growth of the photovoltaic industry. It is now a game between the policy makers of countries in Europe and America and the global photovoltaic industry supply chain. In particular, the pace of internationalization of companies will be an irreversible trend for photovoltaic companies. Any action that prevents the internationalization of the photovoltaic industry will be crushed by historical wheels. . The United States' dual reaction is only a minor episode in the development of photovoltaics, which also reminds China's photovoltaic companies to improve their ability to adapt. In this way, after the eventual opposition to the United States’ double win, the photovoltaic industry will show another round of growth.