2012 annual coal market or stabilization

After a 17-week price drop, coal prices rebounded. Under the fog of uncertainties, how is the coal market trending in the later stages? Rising prices, lack of motivation, decline, but there are many kinds of support. On March 23, during the Spring thermal coal market seminar held in Qinhuangdao seaborne coal trading market, many coal industry people gave their opinions.

Minister Fan Guangzhi of the Qinhuangdao Port Production Business Department said: “Coal prices will be basically stable and there will not be large fluctuations. If there are fluctuations, it will be very small. With stable conditions, imported coal will increase and it may exceed 2 In this case, the choice of power companies, under the limit price, in addition to taking care of, to seek maximum benefits, the current power companies will also change the requirements of coal companies, if the price will be in place Select the right coal type and choose the lowest price if the coal type is appropriate."

Shen Zhe Group’s strategic planning department is paying more attention to coal demand. He pointed out that according to monitoring data in previous years, the growth rate of the country’s power growth rate and GDP are roughly the same. Therefore, we judge the power demand this year to be a slow increase. The seasonal warming trend of the steel industry is now relatively clear, and market confidence is gradually recovering. However, we believe that the price of steel is higher than before and lacks favorable market support. We see that steel demand is still relatively strong. The real estate industry, especially the commodity industry, was influenced by the state policies, including Premier Wen Jiabao's speech, and this year it will continue to be strictly regulated. Therefore, we feel that this growth rate will continue to fall.

To sum up, in the current situation that both real estate and power plants are at a high level, if the market does not show any other positives, we feel that the ups and downs of the market will continue in the next 2-3 months, and the enthusiasm of coal companies is difficult to achieve. There has been fundamental improvement, and the upward pressure on coal prices is still quite high.

As a key coal-fired coal demand company, Wenbo of Zhejiang Energy's Fuxing Fuel Company gave its own analysis of the electricity situation. It is expected that in 2012, it will show a low opening in the first quarter, a rebound in the second and third quarters, and a fourth quarter in the fourth quarter. Therefore, as the barometer of economic development, coal consumption is likely to follow the trend of low and high growth in the overall economic trend. The demand for electric coal is expected to rebound. In 2012, the actual domestic coal supply capacity growth was limited, but compared with the moderate increase in domestic coal demand, the corresponding increase in imported coal, supply and demand growth remained basically balanced, supply and demand conflicts can be alleviated to a certain extent, is expected to achieve a basic balance.

In recent years, with the increase in the degree of supply and demand in the coal market, the trend of coal prices has become more difficult to grasp. It is often a combination of various factors that constitute the operating conditions of the coal market, such as railway shipments and port throughput. Changes, coal imports, and coal consumption of key power companies have all become major factors affecting the relationship between coal supply and demand. Each change in the market is first manifested in the Bohai Rim port, and then transmitted to the resource hinterland, coal prices in the Bohai Rim region. It has become a benchmark in the domestic coal market. Attention to the changes in the coal market should also focus on the facts of the development of Bohai Rim ports and changes in the price of thermal coal around the Bohai Sea.