The photovoltaic industry is getting hot.
Recently, Xiong Yuanquan, deputy secretary-general of Jiangsu Photovoltaic Association, told reporters: "In the first half of this year, the production of photovoltaic cells in Jiangsu alone was close to half of the total domestic production last year." The rapid development of the downstream has begun to trigger a chain effect - crouching The solar-grade polysilicon price curve for some time has recently begun to rise.
It is understood that compared with May, the price of solar grade polysilicon rose by 30% in June, and it is expected to exceed 80 US dollars/kg during the year. In the face of rising costs, the profit margins of downstream PV module manufacturers are being squeezed. The PV module factory is likely to face a new reshuffle again.
Relative shortage
At the 2010 China (Donghai) Silicon Materials Industry Development Forum held in early July, Xiong Yuanquan said: "From our statistics, in the first half of 2010, the province's photovoltaic cell production exceeded 2 GW."
This is almost the production figure of Jiangsu Province last year. In 2009, the output of photovoltaic cells in Jiangsu Province was about 2,300 megawatts, accounting for about 57% of the national output.
"Considering that September-November is the peak demand for photovoltaic cells, the annual output of photovoltaic cells in Jiangsu Province is expected to reach 4 GW." Xiongyuanquan predicted.
Artes general manager Shi Shanglin said that the company's products in 2010 have been fully booked, "the order situation in 2011 is also very good." However, the hot market in the downstream has triggered a “relative shortage†of new raw materials in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain.
According to Xiong Yuanquan, in 2008, Jiangsu Province consumed about 15,800 tons of solar-grade polysilicon, of which about 13,600 tons were imported. Last year, Jiangsu Province's solar-grade polysilicon consumption increased further, reaching about 20,000 tons. Although some polysilicon plants in the province have been put into production, the total output is still only about half of the demand. The other half of the gap is only purchased from foreign markets, with an import volume of about 8,000 tons.
In Xiongyuanquan's view, the gap in polysilicon supply in Jiangsu Province is still large in the future, and it needs to rely on foreign markets.
The current situation in Jiangsu Province is only a microcosm of the national photovoltaic industry. Under the relative shortage, the price of polysilicon that has been stagnation for a while has recently soared.
“Currently, the price of upstream polysilicon is 60-65 US dollars/kg, which is 30% higher than that in May. It is expected to rise to 80 US dollars/kg this year.†Recently, a silicon wafer manufacturer told reporters.
For this forecast, the two largest polysilicon manufacturers in China, LDK and Jiangsu Zhongneng executives, hold the same judgment. Some of the central silicon manufacturers even gave an expectation of 100 USD/kg.
Such price increases have not been surprising to the PV manufacturers who have seen the ups and downs of polysilicon. The reporter learned that the rise in the price of polysilicon in this round was mainly due to changes in the market supply and demand situation.
"Our wafer is now hard to find." Yao Feng, director of the LDK President's Office, confirmed.
As the world's largest PV producer, since 2008, domestic PV module installations have expanded by a factor of two, but the corresponding polysilicon capacity has only expanded by 50%.
Cost crisis
However, the rising cost of silicon wafers has gradually become the crisis that the lowest downstream component manufacturers will face.
Wang Xinghua, chairman of Zhongsheng Optoelectronics, admitted that although the wafer manufacturers began to increase prices at the end of May and early June, the PV terminal signed a full-year agreement with customers at the beginning of the year. As the annual price has been locked, the company can only bear the pressure of rising polysilicon prices. In his view, "the rise of parts has a great impact on the pure component manufacturers. If you don't have your own wafer factory or battery, it will be difficult to survive in the second half of the year."
Although the price of polysilicon continues to rise, in the short term, the new supply will not fall from the sky.
“Because of the restrictions of the State Council’s Circular No. 38 last year, the new polysilicon project has not been approved. In fact, even if approved, the new project will need a two-year commissioning period. At the same time, in the international market, Japan’s Deshan, Norway The expansion of REC, WACKER, and Hemlock in the United States is also very cautious, so the tight supply of polysilicon is difficult to change in the future." Yao Feng explained.
In this situation, well-known component manufacturers face cost pressures, while small component manufacturers have difficulty exporting because there is no brand. In 2009, domestic photovoltaic cell production reached 4,000 megawatts, and more than 95% of the products were exported to foreign countries. But compared with a few years ago, it is undeniable that the regulation of export markets has become more and more strict. Export products are subject to insurance company underwriting and external certification (such as IEC61215, IEC61730, UL and CE) in order to enter the European and US markets. But this does not mean that the market space has shrunk. In fact, the international PV market is still expanding.
Wang Xinghua believes that the brand component supplier or because of the good relationship with the silicon wafer manufacturers, can obtain a better price of polysilicon wafers, so as to remain competitive. In addition, companies such as Savi LDK and Tianwei Yingli have production of polysilicon and components, which have the advantage of upstream and downstream integration. "Unsurprisingly, these two types of companies will gain greater market share."
Recently, Xiong Yuanquan, deputy secretary-general of Jiangsu Photovoltaic Association, told reporters: "In the first half of this year, the production of photovoltaic cells in Jiangsu alone was close to half of the total domestic production last year." The rapid development of the downstream has begun to trigger a chain effect - crouching The solar-grade polysilicon price curve for some time has recently begun to rise.
It is understood that compared with May, the price of solar grade polysilicon rose by 30% in June, and it is expected to exceed 80 US dollars/kg during the year. In the face of rising costs, the profit margins of downstream PV module manufacturers are being squeezed. The PV module factory is likely to face a new reshuffle again.
Relative shortage
At the 2010 China (Donghai) Silicon Materials Industry Development Forum held in early July, Xiong Yuanquan said: "From our statistics, in the first half of 2010, the province's photovoltaic cell production exceeded 2 GW."
This is almost the production figure of Jiangsu Province last year. In 2009, the output of photovoltaic cells in Jiangsu Province was about 2,300 megawatts, accounting for about 57% of the national output.
"Considering that September-November is the peak demand for photovoltaic cells, the annual output of photovoltaic cells in Jiangsu Province is expected to reach 4 GW." Xiongyuanquan predicted.
Artes general manager Shi Shanglin said that the company's products in 2010 have been fully booked, "the order situation in 2011 is also very good." However, the hot market in the downstream has triggered a “relative shortage†of new raw materials in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain.
According to Xiong Yuanquan, in 2008, Jiangsu Province consumed about 15,800 tons of solar-grade polysilicon, of which about 13,600 tons were imported. Last year, Jiangsu Province's solar-grade polysilicon consumption increased further, reaching about 20,000 tons. Although some polysilicon plants in the province have been put into production, the total output is still only about half of the demand. The other half of the gap is only purchased from foreign markets, with an import volume of about 8,000 tons.
In Xiongyuanquan's view, the gap in polysilicon supply in Jiangsu Province is still large in the future, and it needs to rely on foreign markets.
The current situation in Jiangsu Province is only a microcosm of the national photovoltaic industry. Under the relative shortage, the price of polysilicon that has been stagnation for a while has recently soared.
“Currently, the price of upstream polysilicon is 60-65 US dollars/kg, which is 30% higher than that in May. It is expected to rise to 80 US dollars/kg this year.†Recently, a silicon wafer manufacturer told reporters.
For this forecast, the two largest polysilicon manufacturers in China, LDK and Jiangsu Zhongneng executives, hold the same judgment. Some of the central silicon manufacturers even gave an expectation of 100 USD/kg.
Such price increases have not been surprising to the PV manufacturers who have seen the ups and downs of polysilicon. The reporter learned that the rise in the price of polysilicon in this round was mainly due to changes in the market supply and demand situation.
"Our wafer is now hard to find." Yao Feng, director of the LDK President's Office, confirmed.
As the world's largest PV producer, since 2008, domestic PV module installations have expanded by a factor of two, but the corresponding polysilicon capacity has only expanded by 50%.
Cost crisis
However, the rising cost of silicon wafers has gradually become the crisis that the lowest downstream component manufacturers will face.
Wang Xinghua, chairman of Zhongsheng Optoelectronics, admitted that although the wafer manufacturers began to increase prices at the end of May and early June, the PV terminal signed a full-year agreement with customers at the beginning of the year. As the annual price has been locked, the company can only bear the pressure of rising polysilicon prices. In his view, "the rise of parts has a great impact on the pure component manufacturers. If you don't have your own wafer factory or battery, it will be difficult to survive in the second half of the year."
Although the price of polysilicon continues to rise, in the short term, the new supply will not fall from the sky.
“Because of the restrictions of the State Council’s Circular No. 38 last year, the new polysilicon project has not been approved. In fact, even if approved, the new project will need a two-year commissioning period. At the same time, in the international market, Japan’s Deshan, Norway The expansion of REC, WACKER, and Hemlock in the United States is also very cautious, so the tight supply of polysilicon is difficult to change in the future." Yao Feng explained.
In this situation, well-known component manufacturers face cost pressures, while small component manufacturers have difficulty exporting because there is no brand. In 2009, domestic photovoltaic cell production reached 4,000 megawatts, and more than 95% of the products were exported to foreign countries. But compared with a few years ago, it is undeniable that the regulation of export markets has become more and more strict. Export products are subject to insurance company underwriting and external certification (such as IEC61215, IEC61730, UL and CE) in order to enter the European and US markets. But this does not mean that the market space has shrunk. In fact, the international PV market is still expanding.
Wang Xinghua believes that the brand component supplier or because of the good relationship with the silicon wafer manufacturers, can obtain a better price of polysilicon wafers, so as to remain competitive. In addition, companies such as Savi LDK and Tianwei Yingli have production of polysilicon and components, which have the advantage of upstream and downstream integration. "Unsurprisingly, these two types of companies will gain greater market share."
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