Abstract lasted more than a year in the international financial crisis and China's economic slowdown, especially in the second half, in the midst of controversy about the need for the stimulation of investment, the government continues to take a moderate increase in construction investment and a comprehensive policy to promote economic stimulus, finally On the eve of the 18th National Congress, it was realized...
In the international financial crisis and the continuous decline of China's economy for more than a year, especially in the second half of the year, in a controversy about whether investment is needed, the government has adopted a modest increase in construction investment and comprehensive stimulus policies to drive the economy, finally in the ten On the eve of the Eighth National Congress, the Chinese economy was stabilized and stabilized. This experience is important. In the recent meeting of the central government specializing in economic work next year, it faced the complicated international financial debt risk, the high price of commodity prices fluctuated and the economic environment slowed down; the sobriety analysis of China’s accumulated economic system and economic operation for many years The problem; grasping that China is still in the period of important strategic opportunities for economic development. On the basis of weighing the mutual influence relationship between the three, the author puts forward the guiding ideas and system countermeasures for driving the overall economic work of China next year. From China through moderate investment, to achieve economic regulation and stability in the practice of regulation; from the international financial crisis continues to fluctuate, the economy is weak, exports fall, inflationary pressures still exist in the unfavorable international environment; from the need to continue to deepen China's political and economic system reform To improve macroeconomic regulation and control, and to provide new impetus for the stable development of the economy, we have stepped out of the Chinese economy to start domestic demand, increase structural strategy adjustment, and improve the long-term stable and rapid development of the people's livelihood.
During the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the General Assembly proposed that in 2020, China must not only build a well-off society in an all-round way, but also double its economic and per capita income. The economic basic condition for realizing this great goal is that China still has huge potential demand and is still in an important strategic opportunity period that can make a big difference.
At present, many countries in the world are designing their own economic status for the world economic structure after 2030. From the central government's general tone for next year's economic work, it can be seen that it has shown a major breakthrough compared with traditional economic policies. The overall tone has firmly grasped the period of strategic development opportunities, not only proposed the overall idea of ​​continuously improving macroeconomic regulation and control, but also aimed at major potential demand, deepening reform, increasing strategic adjustment of economic structure, and enhancing the internal viability and motivation of economic development. In order to stabilize investment growth and structural optimization, we will accelerate the cultivation of a number of new growth points for strong consumption. Focusing on improving people's livelihood, we will promote the urbanization of agricultural transfer population in an orderly manner. Strengthen the regulation of the real estate market and housing security. Urbanization and affordable housing are the breakthrough points for stable investment growth. Promote economic development in key areas of the central and western regions. Pragmatically concentrate the support of stable economic development on major potential domestic demand. And put forward a series of efforts to maintain long-term stable and rapid economic development. The combined strength of these efforts constitutes a strategic breakthrough and a powerful driving force for improving China's economic performance.
Please note that the expansion of domestic demand in the communiqué is more than just expanding consumption in the general sense. It is not the meaning of consumption in the troika of exporting, investing, and consuming the economy. Rather, from the goal of realizing the development of a well-off society, we will focus on promoting the new economic growth point of pulling power with expanding the space for economic development and improving the potential demand for people's livelihood.
The key point here is to clearly propose: speed up urbanization construction; accelerate the implementation of the overall strategy for regional development; accelerate the development of concentrated and contiguous areas with special difficulties. Vigorously protect and improve people's livelihood, strengthen the regulation of the real estate market and housing security; only in this way can we accelerate the cultivation of a number of new growth points for strong consumption, and promote stable investment growth and structural optimization. Obviously, the development of these key potential requirements objectively requires the economic restructuring structure and the improvement of people's livelihood, and objectively requires the combination of maintaining stable investment growth and improving investment structure.
This is in contrast to the financial crisis in the past few years, when central government investment mobilized economic policies were almost concentrated in railways, transportation, and airports. Although investment in these areas is needed, the long-term driving force for the economy as a whole has little direct meaning for improving people's livelihood, and the sustainability of government investment alone makes the policy persistence of this kind of investment. The overall tone of the central economic work clearly marked the urbanization, the settlement of the people, the improvement of people's livelihood, and the promotion of employment as the focus of economic structure and investment structure improvement, and opened a strategic breakthrough for the long-term stable and rapid economic development. It also provides more space for the adjustment of China's structural economy.
China is indeed facing a period of second development strategy opportunities in deepening reforms, restructuring the structure, improving people's livelihood, and transforming economic growth. Just look at the huge structural gap between the central and western regions and the eastern region in terms of economy, urbanization and household consumption. China's well-off society and industrialization must solve the problem of the transfer of agricultural population. Half of the population is still in rural areas, and the future development of China's economy is urbanized. Every percentage point increase in urbanization rate can increase the investment of tens of millions of people into industrialization, and the trillions of dollars in investment and consumption. As long as you take a look at solving the problem of people living in peace, they can release dozens of industries and nearly 100 million potential needs. They can also improve China's consumption structure and conserve wealth. Some people predict that the potential market demand for urban residents in China will reach 60 trillion. In fact, including the renovation of the old district and the next two years of 200 million agricultural population into the city. It takes at least ten years to truly solve the problem of people living in peace. Considering the substantial increase in land acquisition fees, the price of homes will increase by at least 20% during this period. At the same time, it should also include ordinary commercial housing, but also include decoration, furniture, and home appliance consumption. It can completely improve the consumption structure of China in the direction of benefiting the people and the people. So I predict that there will be a potential market demand of 100 trillion. As long as you look at China's industrial economic strength today, you will see that there is hope for achieving the above goals.
The general idea of ​​economic regulation and control policy and the maturity of the selection strategy breakthrough mark that the Chinese economy will enter a historical stage of long-term rapid and stable development. In fact, with the formation of a new growth point of strong consumption, this economic situation is conducive to achieving sustainable and benign economic development, and is also conducive to promoting the adjustment of the economic regional layout structure and investment structure. Transforming the mode of economic growth has provided greater room for development and adjustment.
In the face of the complex international economic environment and China's real problems, in order to achieve the overall goal of economic stability and improvement in the next year, the economic work conference not only put forward the goal of key breakthroughs, but also put forward a series of specific policy requirements. Targetedly put forward several important issues closely related to the future economic strategy development focus. In fact, it is closely related to the choice of breakthroughs in China's economic strategy adjustment in the future.
It has been suggested that the development momentum will be released through reforms, and these words are correct. The communique proposed: starting from solving the current prominent contradictions, timely launch new reform measures. It is necessary to thoroughly study the top-level design and overall planning of the comprehensive deepening of the system reform, and clearly propose the overall plan, road map and timetable for the reform.
However, the real difficulty and resistance of China's reform is precisely the adjustment of the pattern of rights and economic interests. More importantly, reforms in important economic sectors are not completed in the short term. Obviously, it is necessary to provide a stable economic operation environment for reform, structural adjustment, improvement of people's livelihood, and transformation of economic growth mode through reasonable investment to maintain stable economic operations. Achieving a positive interaction between stable investment growth and deepening reform is an important support for maintaining long-term stable economic performance.
The reform issues and tasks facing China are incapable of overstepping the responsibility of the times. If urbanization and the construction of the people's homes cannot be introduced as soon as possible, the real estate prices will not be stabilized, and urbanization and improvement of people's livelihood will encounter great resistance. Although in practice, deepening reforms still have many difficulties in adjusting the pattern of interests, plaguing reform and economic development. However, from the central government's efforts to promote reform with greater political courage and wisdom, at least we have seen two problems: First, it has enhanced people's confidence in deepening institutional reform and economic operation next year than expected, and secondly, indicating The Chinese economy will enter a longer-term stable and faster development path.
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