Iron ore coke coal ** last limit

It seems that the entire black industrial chain, once weak, has turned around in recent days. Coke and coking coal hit daily limits, iron ore also closed at its daily high, and rebar surged by 2.53%. However, some analysts believe this short-term rebound is driven more by profit-taking than a real shift in market fundamentals. The broader trend still lacks clear signs of a strong bullish movement.

At yesterday’s closing, the main contract for coking coal was reported at 825 yuan/ton, up 3.9%, while the coke main contract reached 1,216 yuan/ton, rising 3.93%. Iron ore's main contract closed at 759 yuan/ton, gaining 3.97%, and rebar’s main contract stood at 3,287 yuan/ton, up 2.53%. This marked a rare "Dayang line" — a term used to describe a sudden and sharp price reversal.

Recently, iron ore prices have been highly volatile, with sharp declines testing investors' patience. According to positions held on Monday, seats like CITIC have increased their exposure to iron ore and coke, which may have contributed to Tuesday’s rally. Analysts suggest that the market sentiment toward coal and steel has become overly pessimistic, and when bearish expectations are too widespread, a reversal is often just around the corner.

The sharp rebound in rebar came without any major fundamental changes. A slight drop in inventory suggests some demand from the end-user side, but this is largely attributed to seasonal factors. There is no indication of unexpected demand. Rebar has been declining for over two months, so the potential for further losses is limited. A technical rebound in the current position is therefore reasonable. However, overall market sentiment remains cautious, with little expectation of a significant change in future demand. Spot prices are expected to rise only gradually.

The daily limit on mining contracts was achieved yesterday, and volatility has picked up in recent days. Despite this, the fundamentals remain weak, with stock levels continuing to climb. Steel mills’ financial conditions have not improved, making it unlikely that mining will see a significant increase. In the earlier period, due to the distribution of more minerals, some steel companies may have purchased more on the spot market, but this would likely lead to reduced future spot purchases. With yesterday’s contract, the mine 1405 contract has already moved above the port spot price, reducing the incentive for steel mills to buy the near-month contract. At this point, major capital operations are underway in the mineral market, with repeated washes and attempts to push out retail investors. Without significant improvement in fundamentals, the main funds are likely to continue pushing prices higher to facilitate short selling. If the mainstream port mines do not rise by more than 30 yuan/ton in the coming days, the market may return to a bearish trend.

Analysts from the China International Commodities Guangzhou Sales Department noted that the coke limit on Tuesday was mainly due to restocking expectations. Recently, the spot price of coke has continued to fall, with most coking plants operating at a loss. Coke inventories have risen for several consecutive weeks, with the average inventory of coking plants below 1 million tons dropping by 24,400 tons to 15,900 tons. The supply-demand balance for coke has slightly improved. Meanwhile, total inventory of coking coal in sample steel mills and coking plants has dropped to a level below the average of 9.956 million tons. If steel mills continue to increase production, there could be a round of restocking in coking coal. However, such a temporary measure is unlikely to bring about a lasting market turnaround.