Jianxun Information (08.23): Copper and Aluminum recently added a “Risk Warning†column to describe the risk of long and short positions through the icon of the star flag. It can be used as a reference for investors when dealing with open positions. In actual operation, investors need to take specific control based on their own short-medium-term trading strategies and different types of fluctuation characteristics. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆The reverse run range of the newer closing price may be less than 2% from the new closing price. ☆☆The reverse price of the newer closing price may be greater than 2%. (Accurately capturing the stock's rise depends on the day before! Enter... ) ☆☆☆ The reverse price of the new price closing may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse price of the new price closing may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The period price is the reverse of the newer closing. The risk may be greater than 5% Risk Warning: Bulls risk: ☆ Short risk: ☆ Tips before the plate: Orient: LME copper in March this week showed a trend of bottoming out, ending at $2777.5/tonne, down from last Friday. US$77.5/ton, fluctuation ranged from 2890 to 2742.5 USD/ton, and the weekly line is the Zhongyin line with upper and lower leads. LME3 aluminum futures showed wide fluctuations, ending at US$1732.5/t, which was US$2/t lower than last Friday. The volatility ranged from US$1742 to US$1724/t, and the weekly line was a small Yin line with leading and falling leads. LME copper stocks failed to extend the downward trend of the previous period and increased by more than 30,000 tons on the 17th. Compared to end-of-week stocks, the stock rose again to more than 100,000 tons, which is 110.45 million tons. This week, LME aluminum stocks have also experienced a significant reduction in the number of weekend stocks at 775,540 tons. Shanghai Stock Exchange copper stocks increased by 385 tons this week, compared to 37,100 tons of stocks at the end of the week, and aluminum inventories increased by 683 tons, which was 159,338 tons. This week, due to being in the third week of August, the pressure of delivery caused the 17th LME copper stock to increase substantially by 30,925 tons, and the total amount reached 111.1 thousand tons, which is much higher than the market's psychological expectation of 100,000 tons, resulting in a relatively lower copper price. A substantial increase, but from the LME's announcement of warehouses, the increase in copper stocks is concentrated in South Korea and Singapore, which makes the increase in this inventory is more likely to be delivered by the Far East Inter-city arbitrage trading. The trend will have a far-reaching significance for the trend of copper prices. According to data released by the International Aluminum Association, July aluminum production was 1.910 million tons, which was an increase of 52,000 tons from June, but this did not have a significant impact on aluminum prices. The overall aluminum price showed a high level of volatility. Next week's market forecast: From the current trend of copper prices, copper prices are still operating at a high level in a large shock box, but over time, the pressure above the copper price is becoming heavier, and directional breakthroughs may occur. Ma Hongqing: The LME copper price maintained a volatile set in Friday's trading, and the 2740 became the main defensive threshold. The amplification of the spot premium made it possible to imagine that the bulls in the LME copper market still want to use squeezed positions to stabilize the current price. As far as the current situation of copper prices is relatively balanced, the direction in the short-term is not clear. However, with regard to the rapid rise of TC/RC and the economic outlook, long-term copper prices are not optimistic. Shanghai CU CU 412 is expected to remain within the range of 25800/26000 on Monday. It is recommended that investors patiently hold a small amount of short positions established last week, and hurried buyers may consider taking out some of their positions. Daily commentary: He Haihai: On Thursday, copper in the LME March rebounded and the shadow of the previous day's plunge weakened. The price finally returned to above the 2800 line. The overall situation of the transaction is lackluster, and today Shanghai copper prices continue to remain weak. After the opening price, the trend showed a weak decline, with a slight rebound in the afternoon. In general, trading is cautious, and the atmosphere on the sidelines is relatively strong. Fundamentally, the U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday that the number of U.S. jobless claims in the United States on August 14 dropped to 331,000. The previous market expectation was 335,000. At the same time, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia announced that the manufacturing index for August fell to 28.5, which is lower than the market expectation of 32.0. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago announced that after a sharp drop in June, its national activity index rebounded to +0.35 in July. , due to improvement in the sub-industry index. We see mixed economic data does not bring great impact to the entire market. At this stage, the continuous tightening of the global spot market remains the focus of the entire market. London copper rose last night. No increase in inventory prevented the price from falling. However, due to market concerns about Asian consumption, London copper has not been able to resume its upward trend for the time being. It is expected that the future inventory may continue to increase, so the price will now We do oscillation finishing in 2780-2820 area. In the short term, the direction of the market is not clear; but in terms of technical graphics, the underlying support is relatively positive. Operational recommendations: market oscillations, waiting for the opportunity to short-selling overseas express delivery: LME market report: London August 20 news: The London Metal Exchange (LME) base metal prices mostly closed lower on Friday. Traders said that investors profit As a result of the market's fear of copper stocks increasing again, LME benchmarked copper prices lower for three months. Traders said, "The profit-taking period led to the decline in copper, other base metals trailed lower, technical selling pressure on nickel, but the reverse price difference is strong, the price of tin rose. "Traders are still concerned about inventory conditions, copper stocks on Wednesday An increase of 30,000 tons. Investors expect copper stocks will increase further on Thursday, but this is not the case. However, traders said that investors continue to expect further LME inventories will rise further in the near future, which makes the market nervous and inspire The rallies sold. The three-month copper was quoted at $2,765 per ton, down $30 from the Thursday's composite deal. Traders said that although the 20-day LME announcement of copper stocks fell again, the market still could not eliminate the fear of a re-increase in inventory. It still shows that the current sell-off is heavy. LME stocks increased by 30,925 tons on the 17th to a total of 111,100 tons, which is a large increase since mid-2001, exceeding the investors' expectations of 100,000 tons. It is expected that the benchmark three-month copper price will have a strong resistance at 2,800 US dollars; the downside support will be 2,750 US dollars and 2,730 US dollars, and 2,650 US dollars will be a strong support. Three-month aluminum was quoted at US$1,733.50 per tonne, down only US$0.50. The market was underpinned by fundamentals, and labor disputes between Alcoa's Canadian aluminium affiliates continued. The union said on Friday that it assists Alcan’s Becancour aluminum plant. The government mediators of the negotiations must spend more time to determine whether the company and the union should resume talks to end the six-week strike. After a three-day initial consultation, there are still major differences between the labor and management sides. Becancour smelting About 800 workers at the plant began their strike on July 7 due to objections on work safety, outsourcing, and pensions. The strike reduced the annual output of the plant from 400,000 tons to 135,000 tons. International Aluminum Institute (International Aluminum Institute) ) Published data show that aluminum production in July was 1.910 million tons, an increase of 52,000 tons from June. However, this did not have a major impact on aluminum prices. The three-month benchmark nickel price was still higher at the point of US$14,000, and it closed at US$13,645 on the 20th. In spite of the large fall in benchmark prices, the spot/three-month nickel price premium rose from US$290 on the 19th to US$350. Three-month nickel fell 600 US dollars to 13,650 US dollars per ton, as it fell below the 13,900 initial support level, suffered heavy profits selling pressure. LME broker TrilandMetals said in a daily research report, "This week's closing price is It is quite disappointing, but the expansion of the reverse spread should provide support. "Three-month zinc fell by 19 dollars to 973 dollars per ton. Three-month lead fell by 9 dollars to 853 dollars per ton. Three-month tin rose against the market by 125. The US dollar, which closed at 9,125 per ton, was boosted by strong fundamentals and tight spot supply. It is expected that the LME base metal price will not change much during the week of August 23 and will still fluctuate within the recent range. COMEX Copper Market Report: NEW YORK, August 20: Due to the strengthening of the US dollar, coupled with fears that the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventories will continue to increase, high-grade copper on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) closed lower on Friday. Crude oil prices hit record and other factors The market was jittery. Traders said that a large number of selling orders at the opening pushes the price of copper down sharply. Stoppage of selling orders triggered the decline. The September copper closed down 230 points at 126.85 cents per pound on the 20th. The 20th day the LME announced. The results of the inventory report showed that copper stocks only experienced a slight decrease. Following an unexpected increase in inventory of 30,925 tons on Wednesday (18th), investors paid close attention to inventory data. On the 19th, copper stocks only fell 425 tons, and on the 20th, they fell 225 tons. 110,450 tons. Traders said that the current market speculation that copper inventories may continue to increase, which will bring some pressure on the copper market. In addition, a stronger US dollar on the same day also adversely affected copper prices. As of COMEX closed, the euro fell to 1.2305 against the US dollar, before It was quoted at $1.2363 late on the 19th. Traders pointed out that the selling pressure on the copper market was mainly due to investors closing out their positions before the onset of the weekend. Traders said that the current price of copper in September is gradually approaching the low end of the 125-135 US session. August spot copper also closed down 2.30 cents to close at 1.2715 US dollars per pound; December copper fell 2.20 cents to 1.2665 US dollars. Copper trading volume was estimated at 18,000 lots, and traded 16,212 lots on Thursday. The warehouse contract increased 9 lots to 73,448 lots. The dollar rebounded and the oil price hit a record high of more than $49, leaving the copper market bullish.
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