After 2013, the latest data we can learn is the data for the first 11 months of 2013. In the first 11 months of 2013, China's ceramic tile production was 8.99 billion square meters, up 5.5% year-on-year. It can be said that the annual production of ceramic tiles in 2013 is basically a foregone conclusion, roughly as I estimated at the beginning of the year: the annual growth rate is about 5%.
Although this 5.5% growth data, compared with the growth of 3.35% in 2012, the growth rate has increased, but compared with the double-digit growth of eight consecutive years from 2004 to 2012, the growth slowed down, once again indicating the development of China's ceramic tile industry. It has entered a period of gradual development, and we have reason to believe that the development trend of China's ceramic tiles in 2014 and in the next few years is basically the same.
In the first 11 months of 2013, the sales area of ​​commercial housing nationwide increased by 20.8% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate reached a new high of nearly five years. The ceramic tile industry, which is closely related to the real estate industry, has only increased by 5.5%, which seems to imply that the ceramics industry is weak. The key factor affecting the annual development of China's ceramic tile industry in 2014 is still the overall economic situation of the country, especially the situation of the real estate industry. The two “money shortages†in June and December 2013, as well as the GDP growth throughout the year, indicate that the country is no longer pursuing growth of more than 8%.
From the end of the National Economic Work Conference, we did not read about real estate regulation. It does not mean that next year's real estate will be loosened, increase growth, and increase the bubble; given the dependence of China's overall economy and local finance on real estate, and the city. The process of transformation, the construction of new countryside and the rigid demand of the market, there is almost no possibility of a large-scale decline in real estate in 2014. The long-established real estate tax is not likely to be levied. The overall real estate is estimated to be relatively stable in 2014, and it is difficult to make a big ups and downs.
Therefore, it is also believed that the capacity of China's ceramic tile industry will not be fully released in 2014, and it is still a year of gradual growth and development. It is estimated that the growth may be less than 5% or even around 3%. Despite the further increase in China's ceramic tile production capacity in 2013, from the perspective of upstream equipment companies, the new capacity of China's ceramic tile industry in 2013 is estimated to be more than 10%.
From January to October 2013, China's ceramic tile products exported 930 million square meters, up 5.3% year-on-year; compared with 2012, the export growth rate was 6.99%, and the growth rate continued to decline, but the growth of export value and average unit price continued to maintain double-digit growth. In view of the external appreciation of the renminbi and the pressure of foreign dumping, although China's ceramic tile products are still highly competitive internationally, it is expected that China's ceramic tile export volume will continue to grow in 2014, but the increase is unlikely to increase significantly, it is estimated to be around 5%. It will not control the country's "Building Sanitary Ceramics Industry" 12th Five-Year Development Plan to control the export of China's ceramic tile products in the direction of 500 million square meters.
In 2014, the quality of China's ceramic tile products will continue to improve. It is expected that in the “National Pumping†and “Provincial Pumping†quality inspection reports, the radioactive emission will be basically eliminated, and the “National Pumping†quality inspection pass rate will gradually stabilize at over 90%. In 2014, the application of inkjet printing will further expand the application of inkjet printing. The localization of ceramic ink will be fully implemented on a large scale. By the end of 2014, domestic ink is expected to occupy a third of the market share, and with the imported ink chamber. confrontation.
A large number of new products, such as cement bricks, candy glazes, metal glazes, glitter glazes, glaze glazes, etc., are widely used in the production of glazes and spray-dried powders. The price is reduced. Dry milling technology is expected to break through in 2014 and enter practical applications. The wide-body roller kiln technology has been further developed and become the mainstream equipment for tile firing.
Experts revealed to reporters that in 2014, China's ceramic tile marketing will be significantly polarized, high-end branding, brand concentration is getting higher and higher, and low-end price wars are becoming more and more cruel. At the same time, the proportion of engineering channels expanded, the sales channels sank, the dealers were flat, and the third- and fourth-line markets continued to expand. The branch office system and the distribution agency system were mixed and infiltrated. The building materials market is intensive in the first- and second-tier cities, marketing costs continue to rise, and more ceramics enters e-commerce, but it is difficult to achieve substantive breakthroughs.
In 2014, energy conservation and emission reduction, environmental protection, occupational health, safety production, social responsibility and other aspects will force ceramic enterprises to further increase investment, further increase the production cost of ceramic tile, environmental protection technology and equipment for waste residue recycling, wastewater and waste gas treatment. Will win a better market prospect.
Although this 5.5% growth data, compared with the growth of 3.35% in 2012, the growth rate has increased, but compared with the double-digit growth of eight consecutive years from 2004 to 2012, the growth slowed down, once again indicating the development of China's ceramic tile industry. It has entered a period of gradual development, and we have reason to believe that the development trend of China's ceramic tiles in 2014 and in the next few years is basically the same.
In the first 11 months of 2013, the sales area of ​​commercial housing nationwide increased by 20.8% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate reached a new high of nearly five years. The ceramic tile industry, which is closely related to the real estate industry, has only increased by 5.5%, which seems to imply that the ceramics industry is weak. The key factor affecting the annual development of China's ceramic tile industry in 2014 is still the overall economic situation of the country, especially the situation of the real estate industry. The two “money shortages†in June and December 2013, as well as the GDP growth throughout the year, indicate that the country is no longer pursuing growth of more than 8%.
From the end of the National Economic Work Conference, we did not read about real estate regulation. It does not mean that next year's real estate will be loosened, increase growth, and increase the bubble; given the dependence of China's overall economy and local finance on real estate, and the city. The process of transformation, the construction of new countryside and the rigid demand of the market, there is almost no possibility of a large-scale decline in real estate in 2014. The long-established real estate tax is not likely to be levied. The overall real estate is estimated to be relatively stable in 2014, and it is difficult to make a big ups and downs.
Therefore, it is also believed that the capacity of China's ceramic tile industry will not be fully released in 2014, and it is still a year of gradual growth and development. It is estimated that the growth may be less than 5% or even around 3%. Despite the further increase in China's ceramic tile production capacity in 2013, from the perspective of upstream equipment companies, the new capacity of China's ceramic tile industry in 2013 is estimated to be more than 10%.
From January to October 2013, China's ceramic tile products exported 930 million square meters, up 5.3% year-on-year; compared with 2012, the export growth rate was 6.99%, and the growth rate continued to decline, but the growth of export value and average unit price continued to maintain double-digit growth. In view of the external appreciation of the renminbi and the pressure of foreign dumping, although China's ceramic tile products are still highly competitive internationally, it is expected that China's ceramic tile export volume will continue to grow in 2014, but the increase is unlikely to increase significantly, it is estimated to be around 5%. It will not control the country's "Building Sanitary Ceramics Industry" 12th Five-Year Development Plan to control the export of China's ceramic tile products in the direction of 500 million square meters.
In 2014, the quality of China's ceramic tile products will continue to improve. It is expected that in the “National Pumping†and “Provincial Pumping†quality inspection reports, the radioactive emission will be basically eliminated, and the “National Pumping†quality inspection pass rate will gradually stabilize at over 90%. In 2014, the application of inkjet printing will further expand the application of inkjet printing. The localization of ceramic ink will be fully implemented on a large scale. By the end of 2014, domestic ink is expected to occupy a third of the market share, and with the imported ink chamber. confrontation.
A large number of new products, such as cement bricks, candy glazes, metal glazes, glitter glazes, glaze glazes, etc., are widely used in the production of glazes and spray-dried powders. The price is reduced. Dry milling technology is expected to break through in 2014 and enter practical applications. The wide-body roller kiln technology has been further developed and become the mainstream equipment for tile firing.
Experts revealed to reporters that in 2014, China's ceramic tile marketing will be significantly polarized, high-end branding, brand concentration is getting higher and higher, and low-end price wars are becoming more and more cruel. At the same time, the proportion of engineering channels expanded, the sales channels sank, the dealers were flat, and the third- and fourth-line markets continued to expand. The branch office system and the distribution agency system were mixed and infiltrated. The building materials market is intensive in the first- and second-tier cities, marketing costs continue to rise, and more ceramics enters e-commerce, but it is difficult to achieve substantive breakthroughs.
In 2014, energy conservation and emission reduction, environmental protection, occupational health, safety production, social responsibility and other aspects will force ceramic enterprises to further increase investment, further increase the production cost of ceramic tile, environmental protection technology and equipment for waste residue recycling, wastewater and waste gas treatment. Will win a better market prospect.
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