[Introduction] With the two advantages of environmental protection and energy conservation, fuel ethanol and biodiesel have been heated up in the domestic market. In the 13th Five-Year Plan, the development direction of two alternative energy sources has been clarified – striving for the “13th Five-Year†biomass fuel The output of ethanol is 5 million tons and the output of biodiesel is 2 million tons.
From the production forecast in the 13th Five-Year Plan, fuel ethanol seems to be more attractive than biodiesel. Below we will analyze the three aspects and put this estimate on the ground.
Fuel ethanol industry
1.1 Raw material security
The amount of straw that can be used in the production of fuel ethanol in China is 200 million tons per year. The development of cellulosic ethanol has sufficient raw material guarantee. At the same time, in the latest “Thirteenth Five-Year Planâ€, as a new energy strategy, emphasis is placed on “focusing on the development of a new generation of non-grain fuel ethanolâ€, that is, using various agricultural wastes such as straw, wood chips, bagasse, wormwood and palm fruit residue. And cellulose such as municipal solid waste is used as a raw material to produce fuel ethanol. The use of cellulose as a raw material to produce fuel ethanol will fundamentally solve the problem of garbage disposal in “agriculture, rural areas and farmersâ€, and increase the income of the people to a certain extent and increase the added value of crops.
1.2 Market capacity
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†proposes that by 2015, the fuel ethanol production capacity will reach 4 million tons. As of the end of 2014, the fuel ethanol production capacity was 3.1 million tons and the annual production was maintained at 2 million tons. In 2015, the annual output of ethanol fuel was about 2.5 million tons, an increase of 25% compared with 2014. In the 13th Five-Year Plan, we strive to produce 5 million tons of biomass fuel ethanol at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan. That is to say, in the next five years, fuel ethanol needs to maintain an annual growth rate of around 25%. At present, there are 11 fuel ethanol development projects in China, involving a total capacity of 2.55 million tons / year.
Fuel ethanol project name and capacity table
1.3 2016 favorable policy promotion
The new "Air Pollution Control Law" was implemented on January 1, 2016, and the emission of automobile exhaust gas is more stringent, and the market use range of fuel ethanol is also increased. Gao Yan, deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China will invest 17 trillion yuan in energy conservation and emission reduction projects.
The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Quality Upgrade of Refined Oil Products and Strengthening Market Management": Starting from 2016, 11 provinces and cities in the eastern region (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, and Hainan) The company supplies V-standard motor gasoline (including E10 ethanol gasoline) and vehicle diesel (including B5 biodiesel) in a comprehensive manner, and stops the sales of gas stations (points) in the region below the national V standard vehicle gasoline and diesel. Starting from 2017, the country will supply a full range of vehicle gasoline (including E10 ethanol gasoline) and vehicle diesel (including B5 biodiesel) that meet the national V standard, while stopping domestic sales of gasoline and diesel below the national V standard.
In 2016, as the initial stage of the 13th Five-Year Plan, it was in the stage of crude oil plunging, and the low price of 30-35 US dollars/ton made the competitive position of fuel ethanol decline rapidly. The price-performance advantage was slightly weak, which severely suppressed the development of fuel ethanol. . The above financial support and policy support are not difficult to read. The country's fuel ethanol and biodiesel as key support projects will greatly contribute to the huge boost of biomass fuel. #p#分页头#e#
2. Biodiesel industry:
2.1 Raw material security
At present, biodiesel technology is developing rapidly. With the reform of technology, the use of biodiesel raw materials at this stage is mainly based on animal and vegetable oils, acidified oils and palm oil . At present, engineering microalgae technology is also being researched. Relatively broad.
2.2 Market capacity and capacity
China is a big energy consumer. The serious energy consumption of petrochemicals has gradually strengthened the sense of energy crisis. To alleviate the energy crisis, the state has vigorously carried out new energy development and construction. As a substitute for petrochemical diesel, biodiesel has entered the people's sights and is committed to environmentally-friendly and strategically oriented products. However, it has encountered various problems in the development process, lack of policy support, imperfect product sales system, and inefficient collection of raw materials. The development of the vibrant industry is now wilting, leading to the increasing idle capacity of China's biodiesel industry.
The 13th Five-Year Plan will introduce or will solve the current situation. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, biodiesel production will reach 2 million tons. To achieve this goal, the country may pay attention to the biodiesel industry in the future. Up to now, China's biodiesel production in 2015 is about 400,000 tons, which is still far from the target of 2 million tons, but this does not affect its boosting effect on the industry.
2.3 Good policy and demand gap:
China's current improvement of the industry should be based on the "biodiesel industry development policy", the production target of the 13th Five-Year Plan may promote the implementation of this policy, while the Ministry of Science and Technology successfully accepted the relevant technology of biodiesel engines, in the future may be based on biodiesel The main fuel car engine will be interviewed, and once successful, its market consumption is broad. Let us look at a set of data. In 2014, the apparent consumption of diesel in China was about 170 million tons, while the blending standard for biodiesel and petrochemical diesel in China was 5%, and the demand for 170 million tons of diesel was about 8.5 million tons. Diesel production is close to 400,000 tons, and there is a demand gap of 8.1 million tons in the market.
3. Conclusion
At the moment, international oil prices have been at a low level for a long time, and the global economic weakness has caused commodity prices to fall. The decline in traditional petrochemical energy has forced alternative energy development to be in trouble. The timely introduction of the "13th Five-Year Plan" energy plan will bring the life-saving material fuel market to a hot spot.
From the production forecast in the 13th Five-Year Plan, fuel ethanol seems to be more attractive than biodiesel. Below we will analyze the three aspects and put this estimate on the ground.
Fuel ethanol industry
1.1 Raw material security
The amount of straw that can be used in the production of fuel ethanol in China is 200 million tons per year. The development of cellulosic ethanol has sufficient raw material guarantee. At the same time, in the latest “Thirteenth Five-Year Planâ€, as a new energy strategy, emphasis is placed on “focusing on the development of a new generation of non-grain fuel ethanolâ€, that is, using various agricultural wastes such as straw, wood chips, bagasse, wormwood and palm fruit residue. And cellulose such as municipal solid waste is used as a raw material to produce fuel ethanol. The use of cellulose as a raw material to produce fuel ethanol will fundamentally solve the problem of garbage disposal in “agriculture, rural areas and farmersâ€, and increase the income of the people to a certain extent and increase the added value of crops.
1.2 Market capacity
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†proposes that by 2015, the fuel ethanol production capacity will reach 4 million tons. As of the end of 2014, the fuel ethanol production capacity was 3.1 million tons and the annual production was maintained at 2 million tons. In 2015, the annual output of ethanol fuel was about 2.5 million tons, an increase of 25% compared with 2014. In the 13th Five-Year Plan, we strive to produce 5 million tons of biomass fuel ethanol at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan. That is to say, in the next five years, fuel ethanol needs to maintain an annual growth rate of around 25%. At present, there are 11 fuel ethanol development projects in China, involving a total capacity of 2.55 million tons / year.
Fuel ethanol project name and capacity table
| Fuel ethanol project | Production capacity | |
| 1 | Guangxi COFCO Biomass Energy Co., Ltd. | 200,000 tons |
| 2 | Jiangsu Lianhai Biological Technology Co., Ltd. | 300,000 tons |
| 3 | Shanxi Jinli Biotechnology Group Co., Ltd. | 200,000 tons |
| 4 | China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation and Jiangxi Yufan Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. | 100,000 tons |
| 5 | Zhejiang Zhoushan Biofuel Ethanol Co., Ltd. | 500,000 tons |
| 6 | Guizhou Ziyun Biotechnology Development Co., Ltd. | 100,000 tons |
| 7 | Guangdong Bioenergy Co., Ltd | 150,000 tons |
| 8 | Heilongjiang Jianye Fuel Co., Ltd. cooperates with Danish Biofuel Technology Holding Co., Ltd. | 300,000 tons |
| 9 | Joint venture between Jilin Xintianlong Industrial Co., Ltd. and DuPont | To be determined |
| 10 | Hainan Coconut Island (Group) Co., Ltd. and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation Joint Venture Project | 100,000 tons |
| 11 | Datang Corporation and DuPont Cooperation Project | 600,000 tons |
1.3 2016 favorable policy promotion
The new "Air Pollution Control Law" was implemented on January 1, 2016, and the emission of automobile exhaust gas is more stringent, and the market use range of fuel ethanol is also increased. Gao Yan, deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China will invest 17 trillion yuan in energy conservation and emission reduction projects.
The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Quality Upgrade of Refined Oil Products and Strengthening Market Management": Starting from 2016, 11 provinces and cities in the eastern region (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, and Hainan) The company supplies V-standard motor gasoline (including E10 ethanol gasoline) and vehicle diesel (including B5 biodiesel) in a comprehensive manner, and stops the sales of gas stations (points) in the region below the national V standard vehicle gasoline and diesel. Starting from 2017, the country will supply a full range of vehicle gasoline (including E10 ethanol gasoline) and vehicle diesel (including B5 biodiesel) that meet the national V standard, while stopping domestic sales of gasoline and diesel below the national V standard.
In 2016, as the initial stage of the 13th Five-Year Plan, it was in the stage of crude oil plunging, and the low price of 30-35 US dollars/ton made the competitive position of fuel ethanol decline rapidly. The price-performance advantage was slightly weak, which severely suppressed the development of fuel ethanol. . The above financial support and policy support are not difficult to read. The country's fuel ethanol and biodiesel as key support projects will greatly contribute to the huge boost of biomass fuel. #p#分页头#e#
2. Biodiesel industry:
2.1 Raw material security
At present, biodiesel technology is developing rapidly. With the reform of technology, the use of biodiesel raw materials at this stage is mainly based on animal and vegetable oils, acidified oils and palm oil . At present, engineering microalgae technology is also being researched. Relatively broad.
2.2 Market capacity and capacity
China is a big energy consumer. The serious energy consumption of petrochemicals has gradually strengthened the sense of energy crisis. To alleviate the energy crisis, the state has vigorously carried out new energy development and construction. As a substitute for petrochemical diesel, biodiesel has entered the people's sights and is committed to environmentally-friendly and strategically oriented products. However, it has encountered various problems in the development process, lack of policy support, imperfect product sales system, and inefficient collection of raw materials. The development of the vibrant industry is now wilting, leading to the increasing idle capacity of China's biodiesel industry.
The 13th Five-Year Plan will introduce or will solve the current situation. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, biodiesel production will reach 2 million tons. To achieve this goal, the country may pay attention to the biodiesel industry in the future. Up to now, China's biodiesel production in 2015 is about 400,000 tons, which is still far from the target of 2 million tons, but this does not affect its boosting effect on the industry.
2.3 Good policy and demand gap:
China's current improvement of the industry should be based on the "biodiesel industry development policy", the production target of the 13th Five-Year Plan may promote the implementation of this policy, while the Ministry of Science and Technology successfully accepted the relevant technology of biodiesel engines, in the future may be based on biodiesel The main fuel car engine will be interviewed, and once successful, its market consumption is broad. Let us look at a set of data. In 2014, the apparent consumption of diesel in China was about 170 million tons, while the blending standard for biodiesel and petrochemical diesel in China was 5%, and the demand for 170 million tons of diesel was about 8.5 million tons. Diesel production is close to 400,000 tons, and there is a demand gap of 8.1 million tons in the market.
3. Conclusion
At the moment, international oil prices have been at a low level for a long time, and the global economic weakness has caused commodity prices to fall. The decline in traditional petrochemical energy has forced alternative energy development to be in trouble. The timely introduction of the "13th Five-Year Plan" energy plan will bring the life-saving material fuel market to a hot spot.
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