October is the peak season for consumer spending, but domestic pig prices have continued to fall. The Xinhua News Agency’s national price monitoring system for agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials indicates that after the National Day, the overall domestic pork price showed a declining trend, with more than 80% of the province’s (regions, cities) pork prices falling.
Last week, the national hog market continued to plummet, and the pig price dropped to 17.63 yuan/kg, which fell below the 18 yuan/kg mark for the first time in more than four months. Analysts believe that the recent fat pig supply capacity has returned to recovery. Coupled with the promotion of the double effect in September, the hog boom was ahead of schedule, and the pig price has fallen back since September.
Experts believe that with the gradual release of supply from the hog market in the future, hog prices have stabilized or stabilized after a sharp decline, and the high base figure last year will be enough to drive the growth rate of hog prices to continue to fall. Others, such as commodities, oil, and real estate prices, have already shown downward trends. These all contribute to the continued fall in CPI in the future.
Supply recovery pig prices fell
“The national hog market plunged last week. For the first time in more than four months, the price of pigs fell below the 18 yuan/kg mark. Since the high price of 20 yuan/kg has fallen by 2 yuan, the profitability of hogs has rapidly shrunk to 500 yuan/head. “Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of China Live Pig Warning Network, told the Nanfang Daily reporter. According to him, last week, the national average weekly price of hog meat fell to 18.36 yuan/kg, and on the 14th, the price on the 14th weekend fell below the 18 yuan/kg mark for the first time in four months to 17.97 yuan/kg. The 18 yuan/kg on June 13 this year was basically flat.
The monitoring data provided by China Live Hog Warning Network shows that domestic pig prices have fallen for six consecutive weeks. According to Feng Yonghui's analysis, with the recovery of the piglet survival rate in the past few months, the supply of pig fat has also shown a recovery trend. Coupled with the promotion of the double-knot effect in September, the hog boom was ahead of schedule, and the pig price has fallen back since September. During Golden Week, local governments strengthened price control, increased market supply, reserved meat, limited-price meat, and subsidies. In most regions, pork prices did not rise and fell.
According to the data provided by the Ministry of Agriculture, in September 2011, the total number of live pigs in the country was 417.58 million, an increase of 1.29% from the previous month and an increase of 3.76% year-on-year. Among them, the number of capable sows was 48.45 million heads, an increase of 0.62% compared with the previous period and an increase of 3.09% year-on-year.
Stabilize after a short callback
The correction of the pig price will undoubtedly help the CPI continue to fall. "In the future, inflation will drop significantly." Changjiang Securities recently issued a report stating that the CPI food and non-food items in September were lower than the same period of the previous year, and it is expected that the CPI will fall significantly in the fourth quarter.
The report believes that with the rapid increase in the number of live pigs, the situation of reluctant sellers in the previous period has improved, and the slaughter of live pigs has increased significantly. Although the demand for pork will increase in the fourth quarter as the traditional pork consumption season, the supply of pork will increase. Limiting the room for continued rise of pork in the future, pork prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the fourth quarter.
Whether the price of pork has turned the trend? Insiders believe that pig prices will not enter the medium-to-long-term decline in the short-term channel, the recent callback or only a temporary, is expected to stabilise in the future. Feng Yonghui said that if the recent swine disease is gradually stable, if prices cease to fall within two weeks, they may release a signal to the market that the price of pigs is about to enter the rebound channel. Because it has entered the peak season of pork consumption in November, the South gradually entered the peak season for making bacon.
However, an indisputable fact is that the year-on-year increase in pig prices has fallen sharply. According to the information provided by the Live Hog Warning Network, the price of pigs has decreased from nearly 60% in early September to 44% today. On the one hand, due to the current decline in the price of pigs, on the other hand, it is due to the higher base price of pigs in the second half of last year.
“While pork prices may remain strong in the future, the supply of hog market will gradually be released in the future. Last year's high base will be enough to drive the year-on-year growth of hog prices.†said Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS Securities. Wang Tao expects the CPI to fall below 5.5% in October and will fall back to about 4.5% by December.
Wang Tao said that the autumn harvest will help stabilize the price of bulk foods. "Of course, CPI inflation will still face some upward risks, but by contrast, these factors will not be in a dominant position. Commodity prices will fall, and inflationary pressures from the labor market will also subside."
Drilling BOP And Control System
During oil drilling, it is installed on the wellhead casing head to control high-pressure oil, gas, and water blowout devices. When the oil and gas pressure in the well is high, the blowout preventer can close the wellhead (shut down). When the heavy mud is pressed into the drill pipe, there is a four-way under the ram, which can replace the mud invaded by gas, increase the pressure of the liquid column in the well, and suppress the ejection of high-pressure oil and gas.
Its types are divided into ordinary blowout preventer, universal blowout preventer and rotary blowout preventer. The universal blowout preventer can be activated in emergency situations to deal with any size of drilling tools and empty wells; the rotary blowout preventer can realize the blowout and drilling operation. In deep well drilling, in addition to two ordinary blowout preventers, universal blowout preventers and rotary blowout preventers are often added, so that three or four combinations are installed at the wellhead.
Annular Blow-out Preventer Annular Blow-out Preventer is usually equipped with a large gate with a ram-type blowout preventer. During operation, a sealed annular space is formed between the pipe string and the wellbore. When there is a pipe string in the well, it can also be separated The well is closed, but it will not work after several times of use, and long-term shut-in use is not allowed.
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