Central Bank: Steel industry's relatively overcapacity product price volatility

Today, the People's Bank of China issued a monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2011. The report pointed out that the steel industry is facing severe challenges. In 2011, the industry's losses were expanding. At the same time, the structural contradictions such as low product structure, scattered industrial organization structure and large backward production capacity were still prominent, and the resources and environment of the industry development were constrained. The factors are gradually increasing. The following is the full report: The steel industry is an important basic industry of the national economy and plays an important role in China's industrialization and urbanization. During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, China's steel industry developed at a relatively fast pace, and energy conservation and emission reduction achieved remarkable results, effectively meeting the needs of economic and social development. However, we must also see that the steel industry is facing severe challenges. In 2011, the industry's losses will expand. At the same time, structural contradictions such as low product structure, scattered industrial organization structure and large scale of backward production capacity are still prominent. The resources and environment for industry development And other constraints have gradually increased. The contradiction between overcapacity is outstanding. In 2010, China's crude steel output reached 627 million tons, accounting for 44.3% of the world's total output, exceeding the total of the 2nd to 20th. In 2011, the production of the steel industry showed a trend of high and low, and the pattern of oversupply of total output did not fundamentally change. The annual crude steel output was 680 million tons, up 8.9% year-on-year; steel output was 880 million tons, up 12.3% year-on-year. In the same period, fixed assets investment in ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 14.6% year-on-year, including projects such as strip and strip with relatively large capacity. The risk of homogenization competition in future products may further increase. Product price volatility has increased. Affected by capacity release and mitigation of downstream industry demand, steel market prices fluctuated significantly. In the first three quarters of 2011, the China Steel Industry Association announced a year-on-year increase in the steel price index of 12.34%, 15.97% and 10.78%, respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.11%, of which the long product price index fell by 6.13% year-on-year. The index fell by 6.61% year-on-year. The production cost has increased and the company's efficiency has dropped significantly. In 2011, the national average import price of iron ore was US$163.8/ton, up 28.1% year-on-year. Iron and steel enterprises spent more than US$25 billion on imported iron ore prices, which became an important factor driving the production cost of enterprises. From January to November, the large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises realized a total profit of 85.3 billion yuan, an increase of 8.07% over the same period of last year. However, the average sales profit margins in October and November were 0.48% and 0.43%, respectively, and the corporate losses exceeded one-third. If the investment income is deducted, the net loss will be 920 million yuan. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period is a crucial period for China's steel industry to change its development mode. The current low-growth and low-profit operation situation of the industry is a direct manifestation of the transformation pain. The steel industry should turn challenges into opportunities and increase structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading. First, strictly control capacity expansion, speed up the elimination of backward production capacity, and complete the goal of eliminating 48 million tons of backward iron production capacity and 48 million tons of backward steel production capacity as proposed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as soon as possible. Second, continue to promote mergers and acquisitions to further increase industrial concentration. According to the statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, the concentration of China's steel industry in 2011 was only 49%. According to the requirements of the “Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan for the Iron and Steel Industry”, by 2015, the proportion of steel production in the top 10 steel enterprises in the country should increase from 48.6% at the end of 2010 to around 60%. The third is to support independent innovation and technological transformation, improve product quality, expand high-performance steel products, and further promote energy conservation and emission reduction.

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