After blood wash 200 US dollars spot gold Jedi counterattack

As the three investment banks reduced global GDP expectations and economic data, the US and European stock markets fell across the board. The risk aversion sentiment rose. After a continuous plunge of more than 200 US dollars, spot gold ushered in a Jedi rebound, rising above US$1,760/oz. .

Synthetic media reported on August 25 that after consecutive slumps in the previous two days, international spot gold fell to the US$1,700 mark in the European market, which fell by more than US$200 compared with the historical record of US$1,911.55 per ounce on the 22nd. New York foreign exchange market in early trading on the 25th, the international spot gold ushered in a rebound, rose to 1,760 US dollars / ounce in one fell swoop. As Credit Suisse, UBS, and Citigroup also lowered their global GDP expectations, Greek government bonds and the CDS also hinted that the market was able to successfully receive a second aid payment. The US and European stock markets fell across the board and the risk aversion sentiment rose. However, with the approach of the annual meeting of the global central bank, the market will pay close attention to the Fed ** Bernanke has introduced a new round of quantitative easing policy.

The U.S. Department of Labor announced on the 25th that the number of jobless claims in the United States on August 20 was 417,000, which exceeded market expectations. However, the number of jobless claims continued in the week of August 13th was the lowest since September 2008. The data also shows that as of the week of August 13, the U.S. Dow Jones/Tokyo Mitsubishi Bank’s business climate index fell by 0.3% on a week-on-week basis. The index fell 0.1% in the previous week. Compared with the same period of last year, the index rose by 1.4%. The French Ministry of Labor announced that as of the end of July, the number of unemployed in France was 2,756,500, an increase of 1.3% from the number of unemployed as of the end of June. The number of unemployed people continued to increase for the third consecutive month in July due to the failure to achieve economic growth in the second quarter.

Credit Suisse, UBS, and Citigroup 25 lowered their global GDP forecast, while lowering GDP growth expectations in the UK and the euro zone. Credit Suisse said that the euro zone 2011 GDP growth is expected to be reduced to 1.7%, 2012 growth was reduced to 1.0%; downgraded in 2011 the UK GDP is expected to 1.5%, 2012 growth was reduced to 1.0%. Almost at the same time, UBS Group said that its global GDP growth forecast for 2012 will be lowered from 3.8% to 3.3%; and the Eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2012 will be lowered from 2.0% to 1.0%. Citigroup said it lowered its 2011 global GDP forecast from 3.4% to 3.1%, and lowered its 2012 global GDP forecast from 3.7% to 3.2%. Citi said that at present it is not believed that the major economies will experience a recession. Citi expects growth in developed economies to remain weak until at least 2012.

The debt crisis in Europe and the United States has not shown any signs of improvement, but it may have intensified; Japan's rating has also been lowered in the near future, indicating that the yen has been difficult to use as a hedging fund; the momentum of global stock markets as a whole is also insufficient; the key is the emergence of a global currency system. There is no good solution to the problem. The problem of a large number of super-delivery leading to a decrease in actual purchasing power is the crux of the matter. These factors cannot shake the strong position of gold in the short term.

Bernanke is scheduled to speak in Jacksonville, Wyoming on the 26th. Whether Bernanke will release QE3 signals will be the focus of the market. Due to the weakness of the global economic outlook and even the suspicion of falling into the second recession, investors once placed high hopes on Bernanke and hoped he could launch the third round of quantitative easing (QE3). However, given the continued high inflation in the United States and the fact that the US economy is still growing, the market gradually agrees that Bernanke can hardly speak of QE3. In addition, profit-taking has been popular for the Fed for its QE3 and better-than-expected macroeconomic data. Both the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced the increase in margin requirements, which further fueled the market's profit-taking trend.

Matthew Turner, a Mitsubishi precious metals strategist, said that in the long-term price trend, similar adjustments have been made in the past, and they have continued to rise. However, he admitted that the price of gold rose too fast last week, up 6%. In addition, after adjusting for inflation, the current price of gold is still far away from the highest record of 2,500 US dollars per ounce set by the Soviet Union invading Afghanistan in 1980.

Analysts said that although gold is expected to remain in a structural upward trend, substantial corrections are also reasonable. If Bernanke does not suggest the introduction of QE3, precious metals may face greater pressure. The market is ready, and if Bernanke suggests imposing to restart a large-scale asset purchase program to stimulate the economy, it immediately sells the dollar. Obviously, however, the speculation that the Fed has hinted that it will adopt more quantitative easing policies has been excessive.

Barclays Capital analysts said on the 25th that the recent wave of gold's decline is a healthy correction, although it is not ruled out that gold may further decline in the near future, but its upward trend remains intact.

Beijing time 01:30, spot gold reported 1,760.84 US dollars / ounce.