1. Supply and demand relationship: According to the estimation data of CRU, in the first quarter of 2010, global refined zinc production was 3.225 million tons, consumption was 3.065 million tons, and surplus was 160,000 tons.
2. European market:
The premium premium for zinc in the European market rose slightly from US$110 to US$130/t to US$130 to US$140/t, and the warehouse price in Rotterdam was tight and the demand remained strong. Demand has been relatively strong since the beginning of the year, and buying has increased or decreased with the fluctuation of LME zinc price. The premium for the buyer is important, but how much the order will change due to price in more cases. Even if the LME price is lower, the Rotterdam warehouse will not be less than $130. In other parts of Europe, supply issues have also affected the premium since the beginning of the year.
Compared with the fourth quarter of 2010, the market conditions in Eastern Europe are dull. The oversupply of the Polish market, everyone has stock, so the order is very small. In the fourth quarter of 2010, the zinc premium in Eastern Europe was US$160. Currently, it is only US$100 to US$110, which is the ex-factory price. In the former Yugoslavia, Nyrstar received a premium of US$130-140. The processing industry also believes that orders have decreased during the winter and demand for supplies has declined. In the environment where orders are reduced, some buyers also place orders at low prices and can enjoy favorable conditions for early delivery.
3, the United States market:
Early: Demand from the US zinc market continued to soften. LME zinc price hikes made more buyers look on the wall, and buyers who had already ordered demanded delivery as soon as possible. Spot transactions are less. The total premium for the 3rd is roughly between 14 and 16 cents/lb. Since the beginning of the year, the premium has become even closer to the high end. Premium premiums for premium supplies are roughly 5 cents/lb. The relationship between premium and demand is not large, but depends on the location of the warehouse. Mortgage collateral ** makes a lot of sources away from the physical market. Higher transportation costs are also a factor. The PLATTS Premium premium for zinc is 5 cents/lb, and the No. 3 alloy premium is 15.50 cents/lb, all based on LME spot prices.
Mid-term: Market participants said that the premium zinc premium in the US market has risen to 6 cents/lb, based on the LME spot price. Some people also attributed the rise in rising water to the temporary tightness of the market supply caused by poor transport in winter. Market participants said that the third-grade alloy premium has also risen since the beginning of the year. PLATTS Premium premiums for zinc are 5.25 cents per pound, and premiums for the No. 3 alloy are 16 cents per pound, all based on LME spot prices.
Late: The premium continues to rise and the premium of 6 cents per pound is mentioned more frequently, although some sources claim that the rise in rising water will not last long because the winter season will end. The PLATTS premium zinc premium rose from 5.25 cents/lb to 5.5 cents/lb, and the No. 3 alloy premium was stable at 16 cents/lb, all based on the LME spot price. Some alloy producers said that the market supply is temporarily tight, and some steel companies are trying to purchase additional sources because of the snowing part of their delivery delays.
4, zinc concentrate processing fee:
Teck Resources of Canada and Koryo zinc company of South Korea reached 2011 zinc processing fee agreement, the processing fee is US$229 per tonne, the price benchmark is LME2,500 USD/t, 6% above float, and 4% down, ie when the spot price of LME zinc is higher than At $2,500/t, it floats 6%, and when it's less than $2,500, it floats 4%. The annual processing cost of zinc concentrate in 2010 was 270 US dollars/t, and the zinc price was 2,500 US dollars/tonne as the base price, with an increase of 8% and a decrease of 5%.
In February, the processing fee for imported spot zinc concentrates collected by Chinese smelting enterprises reached 120-130 US$/t, which was 9% higher than the price of 110-120 US$/t in January. This was due to the increase in zinc price in LME in February and China’s The demand for refined zinc is flat. An analyst said that the strong zinc price of LME promoted the increase of zinc concentrate processing fees in February. In addition, the current demand for refined zinc in the Chinese market is flat, the demand for imported concentrates is reduced, and domestic smelting enterprises are not short of zinc concentrate stocks. . Manufacturers have the same opinion, with domestic smelters claiming that they have not bought imported concentrates in the past two months. Whether to buy or wait to see, perhaps processing fees will continue to increase to 140 ~ 150 US dollars / t.
The 2011 zinc concentrate supply contract negotiations between the domestic zinc smelting enterprises and overseas suppliers are in progress. A zinc smelter in the northwest region said that it is hoped that the processing fee can be set at the level of 220-230 US dollars/t, but There is no specific description of the contents of the ups and downs.
5, the domestic market:
According to customs data, China imported 32,600 tons of refined zinc in January, an increase of 12.77% over the same period of last year, and imported zinc alloy 11,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.29%. The import of zinc ore was 296,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.81%, and the export of refined zinc was 2,323 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 76.15%.
6, institutional perspectives:
The French bank Natixis expects the average zinc price for 2011 to be $2,525/t despite the limited zinc price increase this year. In the long run, the demand from the BRIC countries will remain strong, while the growth rate of the large Brunswick mining area will slow down, so that the average zinc price in 2012 is about 2750 US dollars / t. CRU analyst Graham Deller said at the International Zinc Association's annual meeting that the zinc market is in danger of being a bubble. The price of zinc is relatively high, deviating from the fundamentals, and the zinc market bubble is accumulating.
Due to the large number of stocks in London and Shanghai, the possibility of lower prices in the near future is even greater.
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