The rising trend of the potassium fertilizer market is clearing up

In 2009, due to the impact of the financial crisis and low food prices, global potash fertilizer use decreased by 50%. However, by 2010, due to rising international agricultural product prices, the potash fertilizer trade also gradually increased, and global potash fertilizer demand began to recover. Today, the potash market is becoming increasingly clear, both in terms of price and demand, from both foreign and domestic markets.

In the first half of this year, the demand for potash fertilizer in the country has been stagnant, and the price of domestically produced or imported potash fertilizer has been lingering at low levels. The two semi-annual reports released by Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Salt Lake Potash”) and Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Salt Lake Group”), two major potash fertilizer companies, show that although the operating income of the two companies has increased significantly, Net profit was basically the same as last year. However, since the second half of the year, the domestic potash fertilizer market is no longer calm. In the first half of the year, the domestic climate was abnormal and the expectation of crop output reduction pushed up the price of agricultural products. Many agricultural and sideline products prices hit a record high. According to the Xinhua News Agency's National Agricultural Products and Agricultural Assets Price System Monitoring, on August 15, 13 kinds of 21 vegetable varieties monitored rose in price. The rise in the prices of agricultural products has stimulated farmers to expand their planting area and increase their enthusiasm for using fertilizers, laying the foundation for the demand for potash fertilizers.

Although China's potash fertilizer production continues to increase, it still cannot meet domestic demand. At present, the annual output of potash fertilizer in Salt Lake is about 3 million tons, accounting for 30% of the entire domestic consumer market. The annual output of potash fertilizer in Salt Lake Group is about 1.2 million tons. At present, the consumption of potash in China is between 8 million and 10 million tons per year. Therefore, half of domestic consumption of potassium fertilizer needs to be resolved through imports.

Due to the gradual reduction of imported potash fertilizer in the past two years, the port inventory is at a relatively low level. The Qinghai region, an important production base for potash fertilizer, suffered a flood that lasted for 1,000 years this year. Although it did not cause serious damage to the production of potash fertilizers, the output still remained. Has been no small effect. At the same time, the main transportation route, the Bohai Line, was temporarily suspended due to the effects of heavy rain, resulting in tight supply of potash fertilizer in the market and rising prices. At present, large local companies in Qinghai have basically completed their sales tasks. Currently, they are only executing orders and shipping, and even some small factories are basically the same. In July, the price of potash from Salt Lake Potash and Salt Lake Group has been raised by RMB 100 (t price, the same below). At present, the price of domestic 57% blue potassium arrival is 2100 yuan, the arrival price of 60% blue potassium is 2,450 yuan, the price of red potassium in the port is 2,500 yuan, the price of white potassium is 2,550 yuan, and the price of large-potash potassium is 2,850 yuan to 2,900 yuan. .

Since the sharp rise in prices in the second half of 2008, the situation of corporate procurement has changed to immediate demand. Currently, it is currently used. The quantity of each single purchase is in the order of several hundred tons and more than 1,000 tons. However, there have been repeated news reports recently. The number of tens of thousands of tons purchased, as well as the purchase of about 30,000 tons of half a ship by the company, will have to be able to reach domestic shipments in the fourth quarter; and the NEW arrivals of the port are quickly sold out. All these phenomena can tell everyone's expectations and judgments about the market. According to statistics, 264,400 tons of potassium chloride was imported in July, and 2.7831 million tons were imported from January to July, an increase of 62% compared with the 1.718 million tons in the same period of last year.

In addition, the recent bid of BHP Billiton's resource acquisition of Canada Potash Corp., the largest fertilizer manufacturer in the world, has brought great shock to the global potash fertilizer market. China is one of the largest customers of Canada Potash Corp. and it is also the second largest shareholder of Sinofert Corp., a subsidiary of Sinochem Corporation, which holds 22% of the shares. Sinofert is the largest potash fertilizer company in China. Potash's second largest shareholder. “If the acquisition is successful, the global monopoly pattern of potash supply will certainly intensify. For us, it will weaken the bargaining power of potash import negotiations.” A manager of Shanghai Agribusiness believes that the BHP Billiton purchase attempt is to win the final price of potash fertilizer. The right to speak. Therefore, if BHP Billiton's acquisition is successful, it may trigger market expectations of further increases in potash prices.