So far, the central government has arranged an additional investment of 300 billion yuan. Experts believe that this means that the government-led new investment scale may have exceeded one trillion yuan since the fourth quarter of last year. It is expected that the pull rate of fixed asset investment to GDP will increase significantly in the second quarter.
Investment continued to grow rapidly In the first quarter, China's GDP grew by 6.1% year-on-year, with investment, consumption and net exports driving GDP growth of 2.0, 4.3 and -0.2 percentage points respectively.
Fan Jianping, chief economist and director of the economic forecasting department of the National Information Center, believes that although the third batch of central government investment is only 70 billion yuan, the first two batches of investment will still have a stimulating effect on the second quarter GDP, and the second quarter inventory digest will form a fixed capital. The impact will also be significantly reduced. It is expected that the pull rate of investment in GDP in the second quarter will increase by 1.5 to 2 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Ha Jiming, chief economist of CICC, also said that the first two batches of central government investment is 230 billion yuan, the project capital ratio is 30%, the third batch of investment is 70 billion yuan, and the project capital ratio is reduced to 20%. . Based on this calculation, the government-led new investment in the fourth quarter of last year may have exceeded 1 trillion yuan, while the government-led investment scale last year was only 1.5 trillion yuan.
Ha Jiming expects that the growth of fixed asset investment to GDP growth this year should be between 4.6 and 4.7 percentage points. In the first quarter, the investment growth rate of newly started projects exceeded 80%, which indicates that the investment growth rate in the second and third quarters will remain high.
Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Essence Securities, also believed that at least in the first three quarters of this year, China's fixed asset investment will maintain a relatively high growth rate.
Mu Hong, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, recently stressed that in the second quarter, the country generally entered the construction season, and it is expected that the driving role played by the central government will be further revealed.
However, industry insiders pointed out that it is necessary to ensure that 4 trillion yuan of investment is used in the construction of weak links in economic and social development, avoiding investment in “two highs and one capital†and expanding production capacity, and intensifying the imbalance of economic structure.
Focus on driving social investment Fixed assets investment can be divided into three parts: government investment, enterprise independent investment and real estate investment. Insiders pointed out that the State Council's newly approved 20 billion yuan discount loan to support technological transformation of enterprises is expected to directly drive social investment of 460 billion yuan, which will effectively promote the growth of independent investment.
Although the state has adopted measures such as issuing local debts and reducing the proportion of capital of some projects, there are still financial difficulties in some regions and investment projects. He Weijiang, a macroeconomic analyst at Zhongyuan Securities, believes that whether the global economic fundamentals will improve, the effective digestion of excess capacity, and the launch of new economic growth points will determine whether private investment can take over the “benefit†of government investment.
Fan Jianping suggested that the enthusiasm of social investment should be vigorously mobilized, the social investment cost should be reduced through tax reduction policies, and the investment in scientific research and development investment in new energy, new materials, bioengineering and other fields should be strengthened, and the “angel fund†should be established to support the investment of social high-tech projects. Financial subsidies will be given to enterprise technological transformation projects and technological innovation activities.
Investment continued to grow rapidly In the first quarter, China's GDP grew by 6.1% year-on-year, with investment, consumption and net exports driving GDP growth of 2.0, 4.3 and -0.2 percentage points respectively.
Fan Jianping, chief economist and director of the economic forecasting department of the National Information Center, believes that although the third batch of central government investment is only 70 billion yuan, the first two batches of investment will still have a stimulating effect on the second quarter GDP, and the second quarter inventory digest will form a fixed capital. The impact will also be significantly reduced. It is expected that the pull rate of investment in GDP in the second quarter will increase by 1.5 to 2 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Ha Jiming, chief economist of CICC, also said that the first two batches of central government investment is 230 billion yuan, the project capital ratio is 30%, the third batch of investment is 70 billion yuan, and the project capital ratio is reduced to 20%. . Based on this calculation, the government-led new investment in the fourth quarter of last year may have exceeded 1 trillion yuan, while the government-led investment scale last year was only 1.5 trillion yuan.
Ha Jiming expects that the growth of fixed asset investment to GDP growth this year should be between 4.6 and 4.7 percentage points. In the first quarter, the investment growth rate of newly started projects exceeded 80%, which indicates that the investment growth rate in the second and third quarters will remain high.
Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Essence Securities, also believed that at least in the first three quarters of this year, China's fixed asset investment will maintain a relatively high growth rate.
Mu Hong, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, recently stressed that in the second quarter, the country generally entered the construction season, and it is expected that the driving role played by the central government will be further revealed.
However, industry insiders pointed out that it is necessary to ensure that 4 trillion yuan of investment is used in the construction of weak links in economic and social development, avoiding investment in “two highs and one capital†and expanding production capacity, and intensifying the imbalance of economic structure.
Focus on driving social investment Fixed assets investment can be divided into three parts: government investment, enterprise independent investment and real estate investment. Insiders pointed out that the State Council's newly approved 20 billion yuan discount loan to support technological transformation of enterprises is expected to directly drive social investment of 460 billion yuan, which will effectively promote the growth of independent investment.
Although the state has adopted measures such as issuing local debts and reducing the proportion of capital of some projects, there are still financial difficulties in some regions and investment projects. He Weijiang, a macroeconomic analyst at Zhongyuan Securities, believes that whether the global economic fundamentals will improve, the effective digestion of excess capacity, and the launch of new economic growth points will determine whether private investment can take over the “benefit†of government investment.
Fan Jianping suggested that the enthusiasm of social investment should be vigorously mobilized, the social investment cost should be reduced through tax reduction policies, and the investment in scientific research and development investment in new energy, new materials, bioengineering and other fields should be strengthened, and the “angel fund†should be established to support the investment of social high-tech projects. Financial subsidies will be given to enterprise technological transformation projects and technological innovation activities.
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