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In the recent CDI cobalt industry summit held in Hong Kong on the manganese mine network. , CRU senior analyst Maartje Collignon informed the delegates that cobalt demand will grow strongly in the next two years. However, at the same time supply growth will still be greater than the demand growth rate. Although the supply side also has some risks.

The demand for cobalt in 2010 has increased by 62,100 tons of cm114 from 53,050 tons in 2005, mainly due to the obvious increase in demand from the chemical industry, especially the demand for the battery industry for electronic devices.

Manganese mine network after the global economic crisis. In 2009, cobalt demand rebounded strongly. Collignon believes that demand in recent years will continue to grow.

She mentioned manganese ore. Due to strong demand from industries such as super alloys, rechargeable batteries, and natural gas liquefaction, manganese ore is supported. The recent increase in the demand for cobalt will exceed the industrial output of cobalt.

CRU believes that the demand for super alloys for steam engines will increase by an average of 10% a year between 2011 and 2013.

The average annual growth rate of rechargeable batteries will also reach 14% cm114 during the same period, mainly driven by demand from the electronics industry and increasing demand from the electric vehicle industry.

She said: "Despite the adoption of different technologies, the automotive industry will also have different cobalt replacement manganese ore. However, as the industry continues to grow, cobalt demand will continue to increase."

The demand for cobalt from the catalyst needed for natural gas liquefaction will also maintain an annual growth rate of 47% during the same period. Shell's Pearl project in Qatar and Chevron's Escravos project in Nigeria have been launched.

She said: "We expect that the demand for cobalt in the natural gas liquefaction industry will show a growth in sloping manganese ore, although the overall demand is limited."

The global cobalt demand in 2011 is expected to be 70,000 tons and it is expected to increase to 83,600 tons by 2013.

On the supply side, Cobalt fell into oversupply in 2009 and is expected to continue into early 2013.

She expects cobalt supply to reach 90,000 tons in 2013. However, despite the current market surplus, prices are still relatively strong. Low-grade cobalt prices remain at 17.9-18.9 USdollars per pound of manganese ore. , higher than the CRU February forecast of 16.6 U.S. dollars per pound.

She believes that this is mainly in the oversupply of manganese ore in the Chinese region. The manganese ore network is not yet obvious in other regions. China mainly relies on the supply of manganese ore in the Congo: these stocks are virtually guaranteed as well, and China’s abundant monetary funds also support large stocks.

The oversupply is mainly due to the fact that many new greenfield projects will be launched in the next few years: the project of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Industry Co., Ltd., and the Vale Nouvelle Caledonie company's manganese mine at the Goro project in New Caledonia. , The Ambatovy Project cm114 in Madagascar, the Ramu nickel and cobalt project in Papua New Guinea, the Australian Ravensthorpe nickel and cobalt project and the United States Formation Capital Cobalt Project.

Although these new projects will significantly increase the cobalt production of manganese ore network. However, due to the adoption of the high-temperature acid net processing method cm114, which has had problems in the past, it is expected that the time required for these new projects to achieve full-load production will be longer than expected. Collignon thinks this is the risk of supply.

In addition, she also stressed that Congo’s measures to increase the share of high value-added cobalt products will also affect the current supply pattern of manganese mines. As a result, the current cobalt supply structure has undergone major changes.

She said: "The oversupply will undoubtedly make the price pressure on the manganese ore network. There are two decisive factors in the later market, one is the oversupply problem of manganese ore. And the other is the squeeze of profit space. We expect the price resulting from oversupply. The decline will be closer to the cost of manganese ore, and the exact time is still unpredictable. We believe that the 99.3% production cost of cobalt metal will be around US$14/lb."