Shanghai Natural Rubber** May contract rose 1.45% in early trading on the 26th. Concerns over the proliferation of liquidity continue to support the trend of commodities, India reduced its forecast for natural rubber production in October to provide even more upward momentum. The market is increasingly looking forward to the intervention of the State Reserve.
On the 25th, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) December crude oil contract closed up 0.83 US dollars or 1.02% to close at 82.52 US dollars a barrel. ConocoPhillips International’s 240,000-barrel-a-day refinery in New Jersey ignited the gas to release the pressure on the system after the power outage, which provided some support for the oil price. Customs data showed that China’s purchases of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq increased significantly in August from August, and purchases from Angola remained roughly flat, indicating that China’s demand was strong and pushed the bullish atmosphere to rise. French oil workers blocked oil tankers and continued to influence supply, and they also supported crude oil. The rise in crude oil will increase the cost of synthetic rubber and will benefit natural rubber prices.
Weather conditions, Thailand's natural rubber producing area, cloudy northern and central Thailand, southern cloudy; Malaysian rubber producing area, cloudy southern part of the Malay Peninsula, cloudy northern Kalimantan; Indonesia's natural rubber producing area, northern Sumatra, Sumatra cloudy, Sumatra There is rain south of the island’s equator, rain in southern Kalimantan; China's natural rubber production area is cloudy in Hainan and light rain in Yunnan. Domestic flooding in Thailand has affected external supply.
In the Asian spot market, a trader in Singapore stated that trading volumes are scarce because Thailand is closed on public holidays. Higher prices in Other commodity markets and weaker US dollar pushed up rubber prices. Although the price is at a high level, the recent supply atmosphere is quite tight. The US and China’s monetary policy is still loose and is favorable to Asian spot prices. On the 26th, the official quotation of FOB SMR20 in Malaysia in November was slightly higher in the morning.
In other respects, Indian industry and government officials stated that the country’s natural rubber production in October is expected to fall to 85,000 tons, down 10.5% from the previous forecast, due to the unfavorable effect of non-seasonal heavy rainfall on tapping. The production of rubber in Kerala, which is located in southern India, accounts for 90% of the country's total output. The rainfall in October to date has been 65% higher than usual, which has seriously affected tapping. India's rubber production is not ideal, and its traders will get more raw materials from Southeast Asia, aggravating the tight supply situation.
In general, the capital market continues to shroud its worries about the proliferation of liquidity, and commodities are sought after as a way of preserving their value. The People's Bank of China continues to wait and see after raising interest rates, and it is expected that the next interest rate hike will be difficult to occur during the year. The current most intensive real estate regulation and interest rate hike expectations have an impact on economic performance. Before the optimistic judgment, it is difficult for the central bank to make a decision to continue raising interest rates. In addition, the current interest rate has a large gap from the rise in price, and raising the interest rate once or twice cannot change this situation. The price of natural rubber is supported by it. In the past month, excessive rainfall has affected the production of China, India and Thailand, and the global supply situation has become tense. If the State Reserve can not put inventory into the market in time, rubber prices will continue to rise, but the State Reserve's move is also difficult to have a long-term impact, due to domestic commercial inventory is too low.
On the 25th, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) December crude oil contract closed up 0.83 US dollars or 1.02% to close at 82.52 US dollars a barrel. ConocoPhillips International’s 240,000-barrel-a-day refinery in New Jersey ignited the gas to release the pressure on the system after the power outage, which provided some support for the oil price. Customs data showed that China’s purchases of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq increased significantly in August from August, and purchases from Angola remained roughly flat, indicating that China’s demand was strong and pushed the bullish atmosphere to rise. French oil workers blocked oil tankers and continued to influence supply, and they also supported crude oil. The rise in crude oil will increase the cost of synthetic rubber and will benefit natural rubber prices.
Weather conditions, Thailand's natural rubber producing area, cloudy northern and central Thailand, southern cloudy; Malaysian rubber producing area, cloudy southern part of the Malay Peninsula, cloudy northern Kalimantan; Indonesia's natural rubber producing area, northern Sumatra, Sumatra cloudy, Sumatra There is rain south of the island’s equator, rain in southern Kalimantan; China's natural rubber production area is cloudy in Hainan and light rain in Yunnan. Domestic flooding in Thailand has affected external supply.
In the Asian spot market, a trader in Singapore stated that trading volumes are scarce because Thailand is closed on public holidays. Higher prices in Other commodity markets and weaker US dollar pushed up rubber prices. Although the price is at a high level, the recent supply atmosphere is quite tight. The US and China’s monetary policy is still loose and is favorable to Asian spot prices. On the 26th, the official quotation of FOB SMR20 in Malaysia in November was slightly higher in the morning.
In other respects, Indian industry and government officials stated that the country’s natural rubber production in October is expected to fall to 85,000 tons, down 10.5% from the previous forecast, due to the unfavorable effect of non-seasonal heavy rainfall on tapping. The production of rubber in Kerala, which is located in southern India, accounts for 90% of the country's total output. The rainfall in October to date has been 65% higher than usual, which has seriously affected tapping. India's rubber production is not ideal, and its traders will get more raw materials from Southeast Asia, aggravating the tight supply situation.
In general, the capital market continues to shroud its worries about the proliferation of liquidity, and commodities are sought after as a way of preserving their value. The People's Bank of China continues to wait and see after raising interest rates, and it is expected that the next interest rate hike will be difficult to occur during the year. The current most intensive real estate regulation and interest rate hike expectations have an impact on economic performance. Before the optimistic judgment, it is difficult for the central bank to make a decision to continue raising interest rates. In addition, the current interest rate has a large gap from the rise in price, and raising the interest rate once or twice cannot change this situation. The price of natural rubber is supported by it. In the past month, excessive rainfall has affected the production of China, India and Thailand, and the global supply situation has become tense. If the State Reserve can not put inventory into the market in time, rubber prices will continue to rise, but the State Reserve's move is also difficult to have a long-term impact, due to domestic commercial inventory is too low.
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