2016 domestic PC market showed a volatile upward trend

The first stage (January-February): the Spring Festival stocking market is low and strong

In January-February, it was at the low level in 2016. The reference for the middle and low-end mainstream of the injection molding grade in East China was 16300-16600 yuan/ton, but compared with the fourth quarter of 2015, it was a strong shock after the narrow range. . Before the Spring Festival holiday, the crude oil was low, the domestic economy was weak, and the domestic market was under pressure. The trading volume was weak, and the downstream manufacturers were not enthusiastic about stocking during the Spring Festival, and many small singles opened positions. However, due to the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the price of domestic and foreign PC manufacturers, Give the market a certain support, under the high-end cost price and tight support, traders follow a narrow upside, trading cautiously light.

Overall, based on the weak domestic situation of the overall economic level, the domestic PC market is not motivated to prepare for the Spring Festival. Before the Spring Festival holiday in February, the downstream factories basically completed the stocking, and the manufacturers gradually leave the market, the demand is sharply reduced, and the market is basically at a price. There is no market, but the industry is expected to be better for the market outlook, traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the offer has remained at a high level. Returning from the holiday, the downstream factory resumed work, and once restricted the market trading, but considering the tight supply of the spot, and adding some equipment maintenance plans in the later period, it is good to support the market mentality, the industry expects the market to rise, the offer is firm, and the trading is cautious.

The second stage (March): the late device maintenance and good news released early and quickly widened up

In March, the domestic PC market quickly rose wide, and the market offer was once pulled to the high level in the first half of 2016. The reference for the middle and low-end mainstream of the injection molding grade in East China was 17800-18000 yuan/ton. With the release of good equipment in the late stage, the release of the market has boosted the market to the extreme, and the market is quite strong. In March, the external US dollar market went up, the PC import cost increased, and the crude oil and bisphenol A pulled up and boosted. Under the market, the market offer was pushed to a high level. Although the downstream factories had some replenishment behaviors, the demand for real-term demand was limited, and the terminal-built stocks still maintained small orders. In the latter half of the year, with the arrival of some ocean-going cargoes, the tightness of the goods in the market eased slightly, restricting the market from continuing to rise. In addition, after the sustained widening of the previous period, the growth in demand growth was weak, and the high price of terminal buying was relatively contradictory, but with In April, the external market began to discuss, some of the US dollar wide-ranging upwards, coupled with the current lack of spot support, the middlemen reluctant to sell the sentiment, the offer high, the terminal buys high prices hesitant, trading in general.

The third phase (April-June): the demand side continued to weaken and fell back in a narrow range

After the rapid and wide-ranging increase of the domestic PC market in March, the cost pressure of the downstream factories was relatively high, coupled with the lack of current demand, and the downstream factories’ purchases returned to the rational wait-and-see, high-level trading was not easy, and the middlemen’s shipment pressure was reported. The disk gradually loosened. Moreover, the equipment in the early stage of maintenance has gradually resumed production. The supply side of the manufacturers in the market is expected to improve, the support for market offer is weak, and the consumption season is gradually coming, the market demand is shrinking, and the downstream factories are not enthusiastic. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market gradually became prominent, and the mentality of the industry was suppressed to a certain extent. In addition, the raw material bisphenol A fell and led, and the bearish sentiment in the market increased. The middlemen were avoiding risks, taking orders cautiously, and the market's overall trading atmosphere was weak. However, considering that the PC US dollar offer is still at the high end, the middlemen have established a low position, which limits the market downside to some extent.

The fourth stage (July-December): All parties are doing a good job and the market is unexpectedly skyrocketing

In the second half of the year, the domestic PC market continued to climb, and the third quarter's gains were relatively moderate. The fourth quarter's gains were relatively rapid. This long-term uptrend, the manufacturer's profit margin continued to deepen, and the market offer reached a high level in 2016. The reference for the middle and low-end mainstream talks was at 21200-22500 yuan/ton, compared with the same period last year, the highest increase was 38.89%.

In the third quarter, the supply of raw materials in the spot market gradually tightened, and the raw material bisphenol A increased sharply. The profit margin of the production enterprises was squeezed. The factory offer was followed up. The traders were reluctant to sell at a low price, and the offer was higher, but due to the G20 summit. The impact, the downstream factories started to be restricted by production and production restrictions, coupled with the poor operation of logistics in and around Hangzhou, the demand is shrinking, which restricts the market growth to a certain extent.

Detailed analysis, the main factors leading the market surge in the fourth quarter are the following: First, the manufacturers limit is rising, and the spot shortage is intensifying. At the end of the year, domestic and foreign PC manufacturers had little sales pressure, and the trades maintained a limited amount of upswing operations. The firm's output to the market was low. The spot market was in short supply, and it was normal to find a product. In addition, the demand side continued to be weak, traders were worried about the market outlook, the trade attitude was cautious, and the willingness to supply goods for high-cost goods was insufficient, which further aggravated the supply shortage in the market.

Second, the implementation of the New Deal for Transportation has increased logistics costs. At the end of September, the “Regulations on the Management of Overrun Transportation Vehicles” was implemented, and the transportation costs in the market continued to follow up, with the increase of around 35%, further increasing the cost pressure.

Third, the cost pressure brought about by the rapid and rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar. Since October, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has fallen below several important barriers of 6.7, 6.8, and 6.9. PCs are products with a dependence on imports of up to 70%. The depreciation of the RMB exchange rate directly increases the pressure on import costs, helping the market to rise. mood.

Fourth, the cost side support brought by the raw material bisphenol A. In mid-November, the raw material bisphenol skyrocketed, and the cost of PC production enterprises increased, which helped PC manufacturers to rise.

Fifth, the promotion of domestic supply-side reform. At present, there are still large uncertainties in the prospects for world economic growth. The recovery of commodity demand is not clear enough, and supply factors still play a decisive role in the trend of commodity markets. The frequent flow of international capital has not only failed to effectively drive the growth of the real economy, but has also pushed excess funds to the virtual economy such as real estate, futures, and gold. As a result, the prices of these assets have risen in turn, and they have formed certain support for commodity prices. The market turmoil of commodities.